Analysis: New Phase Of Protests In Cairo

Coptic Christian protesters clashed with pro-government forces Oct. 9, killing at least 23 people and injuring 180. If reports of protesters using firearms and violence against security forces are true, this would mark a distinct change in the tactics of such dissenters, as opposition forces may be turning more violent ahead of scheduled parliamentary elections. However, the violence will likely ultimately help the ruling military council, providing it an excuse to slow its plans to hand over power and possibly rallying support from parts of the Egyptian population.

Risk consultants Stratfor says:

“The incident is the first known instance of protesters in the country using firearms against Egyptian soldiers. Egyptian state media immediately reported that those who fired at the soldiers were Copt demonstrators, though these reports remain unconfirmed.

“If true, the use of firearms and violence against security forces at these demonstrations represents a marked shift in protest tactics. The main question would then be whether this was a premeditated act organized by Coptic activist groups opposed to military rule, or the result of a few angry individuals lashing out in the midst of clashes with security forces. Coptic protests are common, but such violence is anomalous; this violence could be a sign of increased dissent with the ruling military council ahead of the parliamentary elections scheduled to begin Nov. 28.

“The incident at Maspero will give the military justification for an increased crackdown on the opposition and may ultimately benefit the ruling council should the incident trigger an outpouring of support from a large segment of the population that is normally silent on matters of politics.”