With Libya’s civil war over for all practical purposes after the death of Colonel Muammr Gaddafi - at least for now.. all eyes have turned back to Syria.

The country is in the grip of severe unrest with President Bashar Al Assad using his entire force to quash dissent. But despite his most brutal efforts, the protests continue to be a daily occurence.

“The initial picture of the conflict in Syria, which focused on the regime’s violent crackdown on peaceful protesters, is becoming more complex. Amidst reports of greater armed resistance and sectarian violence, there is also growing evidence that the number of defections from the army is increasing,” notes risk consulting firm Maplecroft.

This is heartening news for the detractors as the ‘Free Syrian Army (FSA) now has 15,000 defected soldiers in its midst.

“While the FSA does not represent an immediate threat to the Syrian army and the Ba’athist regime, the ongoing violent crackdown on dissent is likely to compel more soldiers to defect even if they risk execution by loyalists soldiers.”

The opposition is faced with a tough reality. Should they use force to get their point across, at which point the Syrian President will go
‘all-out’ with wiping out the opposition, or should they resist peacefully which has seen thousands of unarmed Syria’s killed.

“Despite the potentially high costs of greater armed resistance, the Libyan model of resistance could increasingly become the only viable alternative to civilian demonstrators as the limitations of peaceful protests become apparent,” notes Maplecroft.

While both Tunisians and Egyptian achieved regime change without resorting to violence, in both cases the military was on the side of the protestors. This is not the case as the military is welded to President Al-Assad’s regime.

The Syrian National Council, which features many opposition groups in the country, face the following challenges, according to Maplecroft:

• The balance of power remains strongly in favour of the regime and its military resources will continue to dwarf those of the FSA. The Syrian army has around 4,950 main battle tanks (MBTs) and up to 2,450 armoured infantry fighting vehicles (AIFVs). In comparison, the Libyan army, which was defeated through robust NATO air support and a sustained armed campaign, had around 800 MTBs at its disposal in February 2011.
• Although the FSA is unlikely to present an immediate threat to the regime, FSA forces may engage in a protracted insurgency against the regime. As a policy decision, it may expand its activities decisively beyond the protection of civilians to increase the number of offensive assaults against the Syrian army. One of the determining factors in whether an insurgency against the regime could be carried out successfully will be the degree to which individuals associated with the largely peaceful protest movement will be willing to resort to greater force. The extent to which the Syrian National Council and FSA are able to coordinate their approaches to pressuring Bashar al-Assad will also factor.
• While many anti-government activists oppose a shift towards armed resistance, the rigidity and continuous brutality of the regime is likely to increase the number of protesters willing to resort to force. Significantly, the FSA has not been able to establish a geographical base from which an insurgency could be carried out and this constitutes a significant obstacle in its struggle against the regime. Armed resistance could nonetheless be carried out from urban hubs across the country. However, protesters are mindful of the fact that armed resistance would be met by an even more heavy handed response from the Ba’athist regime. As such, one of the main deterrents to a sustained guerilla campaign against the regime remains the possibility of violent and ruthless counterinsurgency operations.
• While it may be premature to suggest that an organised and sustained insurgency against the regime is taking place, reports of armed attacks against the Syrian army and Syrian security forces have been increasing. Furthermore, initial stages of insurgencies are often difficult to identify given their intent to drain the strength of government forces through sporadic attacks. . The head of the FSA, Colonel Riad al-Assad (exiled in Turkey as of 21 October), claimed on 10 October that a series of guerrilla attacks against regime forces were being planned from Turkey.
• Although stronger armed resistance may ultimately be required to defeat the Ba’athist regime, the effects of seven months of largely peaceful protests on Bashar al-Assad’s support base should not be discounted. Given the failure to contain protests and the lack of viable strategies to restore control, important figures within the ruling elite may eventually consider jumping ship. While some Alawite officials may be considering possible exit strategies, fears of reprisal attacks directed against the minority group in a post-Assad Syria are likely to counter this. Memories of a rebellion between 1979 and 1982 in which several prominent Alawites were assassinated reinforce such fears further. Ruling Alawite elites are also mindful of the resentment which persists after its brutal crackdown on a Muslim Brotherhood revolt in the city of Hama in 1982.
• The Syrian economy continues to suffer as a result of the ongoing unrest, and it remains a possibility that the Sunni merchant class could question the costs of backing the ruling Ba’athist regime. Revenues are being eroded, whilst daily security operations are proving costly. In late September, the Syrian central bank revealed that the government is looking to impose an additional tax on public sector workers. The tax would be equivalent to 4% of the average public sector salary. The EU ban on the import of Syrian oil imposed in September (coming into full effect in mid-November) has deprived the regime of one of its key sources of revenue. Production of oil has in the recent past accounted for as much as US$8m a day (around 20% of total revenues). Other key sources of revenue, such as tourism have also dried up. The Syrian minister for tourism, Saadallah Agha al-Qaala, has stated that the tourism sector accounted for around US$8.3bn in 2010 (almost 8% of GDP). As such the IMF has projected that the Syrian economy will contract by 2% this year.

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