Could the Arab Spring have been predicted? More significant, could we have predicted that Saudi Arabia will remain stable throughout the turmoil? Or even where Bin Laden was hiding? New data mining techniques suggest we can. READ MORE HERE

As the global economy lurches from one crisis to the next, we look at the prospects for the regional economies in troubling global conditions which could slash domestic growth.

Another quarter, another headache. Gulf governments have suffered a tumultuous first two quarters of the year and were hoping for some semblance of sanity in the third quarter. At the very least, regional governments were hoping that tragic developments within the Middle East had remained isolated - Syria, Yemen and Libya - leaving other countries in relative safety and peace.
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The Egyptian army has given the public what they wanted: The humiliation of Hosni Mubarak and his regime on live TV. But beyond the court circus, far greater challenges remain.

It was an image that many Egyptians never thought they will live to see. Hosni Mubarak, the Arab strongman and former president of Egypt, in a cage along with his two sons and his closest associates and political allies.

Not satisfied with disposing Mubarak, Egyptians returned time and again to the now-famous Tahrir Square to ensure that Mubarak did not enjoy a luxurious exile ala Zine al-Abidine Ben AliBen Ali of Tunisia, who is now in political asylum in Saudi Arabia despite being found guilty of corrupt property deals by a Tunisian court. READ MORE HERE

The Fraser Institute’s Global Petroleum Survey is the latest where super-rich Qatar beats its regional competitors’ as it pips them to the post as the Middle East’s most investment-friendly destination for petroleum exploration and development. READ MORE HERE

Gulf states saw their default risks subside considerably during the second quarter as investors shrugged off the Arab Spring and focused on the troubled EU states. Still, Dubai remained among the list of sovereigns most likely to default.

Dubai, which was ranked as the 7th most risky sovereign in the first quarter, is now at the edge of the list of 10 countries most likely to default, according to data from the second quarter of 2011. READ MORE HERE

The Arab World’s tryst with democracy and freedom is unlikely to bear economic fruits, according to a study. Instead, we could well see a gridlock political environment and economic growth that continues to lag global averages.

The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) insightful study on how the Arab Spring initiative is likely to play out, suggests a 60% probability of a gridlocked political environment that is unlikely to result in realizing the aspirations of the region’s citizens. READ MORE HERE

Even as the Egyptian Government looks to revive the country’s economy, it has turned down the International Monetary Fund (IMF)’s stand-by agreement. A bold move no doubt, but was it a populist decision or purely a financial one? And if the Egyptian Government’s decision to turn down the IMF a move to spurn Mubarak-praising entities, why is it borrowing from the Gulf?

Egypt’s decision to turn down International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank is a bold move, given that the country’s fiscal situation remains fragile. READ MORE HERE

HSBC’s forecast for the region’s three largest economies reveals its continued concerns for Saudi Arabia and Egypt, while it believes UAE’s status as a safe haven is revived.

HSBC expects Egypt’s GDP to rise a mere 0.2% in 2011, a far cry from the robust 5.1% growth in 2010. To be fair, a lot has changed in the country since the end of 2010. READ MORE HERE

As investors say goodbye to the first half of the year and brace themselves for a strange and uncertain world in the second half, the worry beads are already out.Global economies have stuttered, faced natural disaster of epic proportions, seen political upheavals that nobody could have forecasted and have seen new and old worries surface and resurface.Yet markets have remained resilient for the most part, commodity-driven economies have prospered and emerging economies are still managing to expand and grow.Here is a look at what is keeping investors awake at night and some bright spots in an increasingly uncertain world. READ MORE HERE

Spring is nearly six months old. It is time to take stock, remember those who lost their lives and continue to fight, and hand out some well-deserved awards to the key players.

The New York Times columnist Nicholas Kristof, asked the rhetorical question ‘What Country Handled Arab Spring The Best? His own answer: Morocco.

But he left the discussion at that. Given that the Arab Spring is just about six months old, alifarabia.com was inspired to take stock of how the various countries have handled a revolution that has smashed Middle East dogmas, broken the will of Arab strongmen and given hopes to millions not just in the Arab World but also around the world.

The Middle East has seen more public participation in politics in the past six months than it has done over the past 50 years. Much to the shock of Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, Hosni Mubarak and Moamer Qaddhafi, the people of the Arab World launched a unique coup that they could not have fathom and never saw coming. These strongmen were looking to suppress indigenous Islamic movements, the radicals, Al-Qaeda sympathisers, the socialists, the Shiaas and the sufis. They were looking for tangible forces they could fight, and suppress and imprison and maim - as they had done in the past.

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