EFG-Hermes believes an MSCI upgrade of UAE and Qatar exchanges to emerging market status is unlikely but not impossible. If the upgrade does happen, both markets could tap into an estimated $280Bn of emerging market funds.
The markets have been buoyant recently in anticipation that MSCI will upgrade both UAE and Qatar to emerging market status on December 14. READ MORE HERE

• 25 Rapid Growth Markets (RGMs) to grow by an average of 6.2% this year and by 5.9% in 2012, compared with 1.6% growth for the Eurozone this year falling to 0.6% next year.

• Qatar had the highest nominal GDP (US$) per capita at PPP in 2010 among the 25 RGMs and has also been the fastest growing economy over the last decade, with an average growth of 13%.

The dynamics of the global economy have changed with a new set of fast-growing markets challenging the position of the established advanced economies. The rapid growth markets (RGMs) are expected to grow collectively by 6.2% this year, almost four times more than the anemic growth expected in the Eurozone according to Ernst & Young’s new quarterly Rapid Growth Markets Forecast (RGMF).
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While their global counterparts slash and burn, Gulf banks are collectively set for their best year - ever — according to KAMCO.

While major blue-chip banks across the world are cutting back, shedding staff, deleveraging and recoiling at the thought of major sovereign defaults in Euroland, Gulf banks have quietly bulked up. Their prudence has allowed them to escape much of the crisis facing the global financial services industry, and they have benefited from great government support that has ensured they lived through the soul-crushing global financial crisis of 2008. READ MORE HERE
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Muscat-based United Securities has turned cautiously optimistic on the recent developments by global markets to contain the debt crises and on the back of better than expectation Q3 results in some market sectors.
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The EU and the US economies are not the only headaches for Middle East economies. China’s faltering economy could also hurt the region’s growth prospects.

As the advanced economies were contracting and falling behind earlier in the year, the Gulf and the wider MENA states were hoping Chinese and wider Asian demand to ensure their oil production finding eager buyers. READ MORE HERE
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The regional stock markets may be sending negative signals, but the Middle East listed companies are expected to see a 38% rise in earnings in the third compared to the same period last year, according to EFG-Hermes estimates.

“Materials sector earnings are driven by higher oil prices, lower provisioning and loan growth will likely drive earnings growth for the Saudi banks, and the UAE’s real estate sector will likely see a Y-o-Y turnaround after heavy losses from UP and Aldar in 2010, in our view. (Excluding UP and Aldar reduces earnings growth expectations to 16.8% Y-o-Y and 2.6% Q-o-Q). We believe Q-o-Q growth will be driven by Emaar and UP showing strong earnings growth, seasonally high earnings from SEC and Air Arabia due to the summer period, and OCI, which should benefit from strong fertiliser prices,” notes EFG.

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The UAE which is more aligned than other regional states to global economic cycles, saw its PMI fall from 57.5 in April to 51.0 in July, suggesting that that any further deterioration in global economies will be felt more in the UAE compared to other Gulf states, says Deutsche Bank. READ MORE HERE