Bahrain’s financial sector has been hit by civil unrest that has dented business confidence in the Gulf Arab state, but renewed construction activity could boost otherwise muted growth in the banking sector. CONTINUE READING

Yonis / Foter / Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 2.0 Generic (CC BY-NC-ND 2.0)

Three years after Bahrain erupted in violence, the country’s economy remains in fragile condition. CONTINUE READING

Unlisted Sightings / Foter / CC BY

The Bahraini government and the International Monetary Fund seem to be at odds in their assessment of the country’s economic progress. CONTINUE READING

m_fahad / Foter.com / CC BY-NC-ND

By Rushdi Siddiqui, Global Head of Islamic Finance at Thomson Reuters

For the first column in 2013, I did not want a me-too article about sukuk issuance for year ahead, central bank authorisation of a mega Islamic bank, or new IFSB or AAOIFI standards, but shine a spotlight on ‘unsung heroes’ of an Islamic financial institution.

At an Islamic award ceremony and ensuing Press release, the CEO of an Islamic financial institution usually thanks his staff and employees, and typically says, “… without our hard working employees none of these achievements is possible…” These are not hallow words, as he ‘flies or falls’ based upon staff meeting their KPIs down the chain of command to the clerk in the mailroom and the janitor.
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Navin Shetty Brahmavar / Foter / CC BY-SA

Bahrain is looking at its GCC counterparts enviably as it battles its own domestic issues, while its neighbours rake in petrodollars and bask in relative stability. It seems like the Kingdom will have to live with internal political strife for some time to come. CONTINUE READING

By Rushdi Siddiqui, Global Head of Islamic Finance at Thomson Reuters

The forty-year old, $1.2 trillion Islamic finance industry needs to take stock and look in the mirror and examine the reflection holistically. Have we arrived at the ‘reset’ moment that every relationship, in this case, faith and finance, must surely undergo?

This fortnightly column, Participation Finance/Banking, will be about the signposts, speed bumps, potholes, and detours on the road ahead in Islamic finance. It’s about addressing the present challenges for tomorrow’s deliverables, changing today’s dialogue for tomorrow’s conversations, and focusing on the substance over form so we move towards financing/banking (with established rules) and away from sole reliance on the faith.
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By Rushdi Siddiqui, Global Head of Islamic Finance at Thomson Reuters

Let me start off with a loaded question, what one word in Islamic finance is as important as Shari’ah, tax, accounting, regulation, and standardisation (STARS)?

Here are some clues:

Islamic finance has institutions called Liquidity Management Center (LMC) in Bahrain, Liquidity Management House (LMH) in Kuwait, and International Islamic Liquidity Management Corporation (IILM) in Malaysia, plus other similar organisations with different names.

The UAE Central Bank has been encouraging commodity Murabaha certificate of deposits (CDs) and expanded to repurchase (repo) offerings to address short-term UAE Islamic bank needs.

The Central Bank of Bahrain (CBB) has been issuing liquidity, addressing Sukuk Al-Salaam, short term, non-tradable securities.

Index providers have created Shari’ah-compliant liquid blue chips, similar to the Dow Jones Islamic Market International Titans 100 Index.

At many of the Islamic finance conferences, there are speakers and sessions dedicated to liquidity management risk along with credit, operational, market, and Shari’ah non-compliant risk.

Thomson Reuters launched the Islamic Inter-bank Benchmark Rate (IIBR), decoupling from LIBOR, an indigenous innovation for Islamic banks to manage their own short term liquidity.

The Islamic Financial Services Board (IFSB) released documents directed towards enhancing reliability and stability in the industry, through The Development of Islamic Money Markets (technical notes), earlier this year.

The Bursa Suq Al-Sila (in Malaysia) is a commodity trading platform, underlying is, say, palm oil, directed towards facilitating Islamic liquidity management.

Well if you haven’t spotted the common thread, in a word it is liquidity and it goes with asset-liability matching. In Islamic finance, there has been a historical mismatch because of the lack of robust short-term money market instruments; primarily reliance on two party bi-lateral commodity Murabaha and Wakala agreements, to manage the liquidity, surplus and deficit of Islamic banks.

The challenges associated with bi-lateral agreements includes counter-party credit risk, meaning that the lending entity may not be able to get its funds back with profit, if the receiving entity goes out of business. Obviously, the situation becomes more pronounced if subjected to external shocks, like the credit crisis in 2008, where liquidity freezes, hence, presenting fire-priced asset sales as the only alternative with the resulting ‘systemic’ risk to the niche industry.

The short-term liquidity challenge has also produced something called ‘leakage,’ where Shari’ah-compliant funds are placed in ‘conventional’ spaces. For example, the CEO of CIMB Islamic Bank, Badlisyah Abdul Ghani, stated during an interview in 2007 that, “there is nothing wrong with commodity Murabaha as a structure … what is not liked is when proceeds … are used for non-Shari’ah purposes … this leakage of Islamic funds is huge … We estimate it is over $1.2 trillion … mostly invested in US Treasuries and non-compliant investment products …

There is continued chatter in the Islamic finance market place about authentic Shari’ah-based solutions, as today’s offering, to address short term liquidity, is about either removing the Haraam elements or placing Islamic ‘wrappers’ on their conventional counter-part products.

However, it must be understood that Islamic finance is an immensely small sub-set (valued at $1.2 trillion) of conventional finance (valued at over $100 trillion) and of course much younger, four decades versus four centuries. And to be fair yes, Islamic finance needs to stop using its infancy as an excuse and to dissociate from the law of necessity, as Islamic finance solutions are gradually surfacing.

Let’s also manage expectations accordingly on what issues Islamic finance can resolve today within this niche industry, before proposing it as a solution for the ills of conventional finance. Today, Islamic finance is more about incomplete product pushing at the national/country level, than providing holistic financial and financing solutions.

For example, conversations are invariably raised on the inefficiencies, such as the inability to achieve economies of scale/size or the lengthy time frame it takes to bring a Sukuk to the market in the GCC, associated with a lack of standardisation, hence, one possible reason that the conventional financial industry has not yet taken IF seriously. Thus, if we do not have a ‘unified’ and efficient approach to addressing some of our major issues like short term liquidity, then it is going to be a challenge for others to accept our advice regarding their concerns.

To grow Islamic finance to $2 trillion and cross-sell beyond its traditional markets, fundamental, not reactive, and foundational, not bi-lateral, approaches are needed and necessary. The thinking of ‘if, it ain’t broke, what you gonna fix,’ is no longer applicable to addressing short term liquidity in Islamic finance.

To get to the end-goal of so called ‘Islamic’ purity, the industry, with guidance from regulators, has to go through interim tolerance parameters that are time consuming to avoid self-destructive destabilisation. Islamic finance has to, at one level, reflect its age and maturity, and not that of the more established conventional finance. In fast tracking solutions, the law of unintended consequences kicks in, where the solution actually creates more problems.

Thus, the alternative approaches in different geographies to, say, liquidity to asset-liability mismatch is the industry recognising a challenge and transparently offering suggestions to find a solution. This reinforces the fact Islamic finance, today, is fragmented and domestic in nature, i.e., pieces in a jigsaw puzzle.

With the recent ‘conventional banking’ scandals over alleged Libor manipulation and money laundering, this openness needs to be both acknowledged and commended!

By Rusdhi Siddiqui, Global Head of Islamic Finance at Thomson Reuters

Let me start off with a loaded question, what one word in Islamic finance is as important as Shari’ah, tax, accounting, regulation, and standardisation (STARS)?

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By Rushdi Siddiqui is the global head of Islamic finance at Thomson Reuters

In the last instalment of a three-part interview, Mushtak Parker, the leading journalistic voice on Islamic finance, shares his views on the International Islamic Liquidity Management Corporation (IILM), education in Islamic finance, moving the industry to US$2 trillion (RM6.22 trillion), scholars on multiple boards, the late Dr Zaki Badawi and, finally, how he would like to be remembered. The following are excerpts from the interview.
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ansik / Foter

The UAE has more than a million LinkedIn users, Egypt has a quarter of the region’s Facebook users and the most popular for Twitter was Bahrain, according to latest data. And guess which brand was the most popular among UAE Facebook users? CONTINUE READING

Leading journalist on Islamic finance tells why he is often ‘harsh’ on the industry and his other views

“To be persuasive we must be believable; to be believable we must be credible; (to be) credible we must be truthful.” Edward Murrow.
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By Rushdi Siddiqui, Global Head of Islamic Finance, Thomson Reuters

The Goal: The central issue is about the industry controlling its own destiny

“Behind every success is endeavour… behind endeavour, ability… behind ability, knowledge… behind knowledge, a seeker ….” Unknown.

As the blessed month of Ramadan arrives, here is my “seeking” list for Islamic finance. It’s not about another voice asking when the International Islamic Liquidity Management Corporation (IILM) will issue its first paper or disagreeing with CIMB Group CEO Datuk Seri Nazir Razak’s comment on “rolling back” government’s involvement in business, but more to do with controlling our own Islamic finance manifest destiny.
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By Rushdi Siddiqui, Global Head of Islamic Finance, Thomson Reuters

Islamic finance has reached it natural market share in certain markets according a recent A.T. Kearney report, hence, an early ‘amber colored flag alert’ on the need for international expansion.

Islamic finance needs to find an example of a model company, ideally from the Muslim world, which has become a global player based upon customer service, unique selling proposition, innovation, demand, and a charismatic leader.

Should it also look to the west, and examine the likes of Google, Apple, Coca Cola or Pepsi, ExxonMobil, etc.? Does it look at the management style of former GE Chairman Jack Welsh or the vision of the late Steve Jobs?
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By Rushdi Siddiqui, Global Head of Islamic Finance, Thomson Reuters

To grow, Islamic banks must compete with conventional lenders

Dedicated Islamic banks are generally national in nature and in certain markets have reached their ‘natural market share’ for Islamic banking, according to an A.T. Kearney study.

A recent report by the consulting firm A.T. Kearney, The Future of Islamic Banking, and a Reuters article, ‘No windfall from Qatar ban on Islamic windows’, have generated much productive chatter globally.
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A Jadwa Investment press statement notes that Saudi Arabia’s net foreign assets rose by a little more than $100-billion to reach $600-billion by the end of 2011, according to its estimate.

For the first time, data on the total foreign assets and liabilities of all componentsof the Saudi economy (government, companies and individuals) has been published. It showsthat their combined foreign assets grew rapidly in recent years to stand at $707 billion at the end of 2010. With Saudi entities and individuals owing $213 billion to foreigners,total net foreign assets stood at $494 billion at the end of 2010. We estimate that theKingdom’s net foreign assets rose to almost $600 billion at the end of 2011. This is very high and represents a core source of strength for the economy.
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Ahmed Rabea / Foter

While Middle East oil exporters could see a 4.8% GDP growth this year, Bahrain would be lucky to eke out a 2%increase this year, according to the International Monetary Fund in its latest report published on April 17. READ MORE HERE

Note: The article was published before the Formula 1 race took place in Bahrain

By Rushdi Siddiqui

Daud Vicary Abdullah is an authority on Islamic banking and has contributed to a number of books on the subject.

He has been in the finance and consulting industry for more than 38 years, with significant experience in Asia, Europe, Latin America and the Middle East. Meet Daud Vicary Abdullah, the president and CEO of International Centre of Education in Islamic Finance (Inceif), the global university of Islamic finance.
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By Rushdi Siddiqui, Global Head of Islamic Finance at Thomson Reuters

We already know about displaced commercial risk, credit, liquidity, operational, Shariah non-compliant, and markets risks in Islamic finance. What about ‘key-person’ risk in Islamic finance?

What does a former Minister of Economy of France (Christine Lagarde), former Prime Minister of United Kingdom (Gordon Brown) and former under Secretary for International Affairs, US Treasury (John Taylor) have in common? They were all high profile public sector personalities pushing Islamic finance in their respective jurisdictions, and, upon leaving office, the movement’s momentum has been meandering or has stop ‘cold’ in the tracks.
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A list of institutions the bankrupt firm owes shows the Central Bank of Bahrain is the biggest Arcapita creditor. Other major lenders include Riyad Bank and Mashreq. READ MORE HERE

By Rushdi Siddiqui, Global Head of Islamic Finance

NEED FOR CONTROL ROOM: The industry has alphabet bodies that deal with various issues but when it comes to public relations and marketing, there seems to be a gaping hole that is getting larger

Is there a media and public relations (PR) “control room” for Islamic finance that educates, creates awareness, undertakes damage control, etc, so that the industry is “conventionally efficient” media-savvy?

Some recent headlines, by-lined articles, blogs and press releases from Islamic finance provide the answer:

* Is Islamic Finance a Failure? Reuters (Guest Columnist)

* KFH: Banking Products that Cement Value of Savings in Society, press release

* Islamic Banks Misleading: Clients Emirates 24/7 (Dubai, UAE)

* Reporters Notebook: The Ethical Aspects of Islamic Banks, www.greenprophet.com

* Most Trusted Middle East Banks, www.Alifarabia.com

* Questionable Islamic Banking Principles, www.freemalaysiatoday.com

* Shining Star of the Middle East, Financial News

* The Trillion Dollar Hoax, The Islamic Globe

* The Lessons from the Goldman Sachs Proposed US$2 Billion Sukuk Saga, Arab News

* Mega Islamic Bank Plans Cancelled, Gulf Daily News (Bahrain).

Let’s put aside those writers seeking publicity, cheerleaders of the industry, the anti-syariah movement and the well-meaning purest, and those who, unfortunately, have had a bad experience, from inappropriate products to fraud to customer service, in Islamic finance. The truth about Islamic finance is somewhere between “today’s offering and where we eventually want it to be tomorrow”.

The continued “conflicting” headlines should be the “cold water” wake-up call for the industry on two fronts:

ADDRESSING the substance, over form, of the Islamic finance, and;

CONVEYING its message, as the perception of the industry is not aligned to the objectives of movement, including raising/writing comments after “unbalanced, out-of-context, exaggerated, or untrue” articles in the media circles.

Industry body

Usually, industries, from finance and healthcare to technology, have financed a designated company/industry body to educate, lobby, promote to new customers and market, undertake damage control, and so on. Their broad message is supplemented and complimented by local institutions with customised local message.

For example, in many of non-Muslim countries with an established Muslim population, there are Muslim organisations, like Council of American Islamic Relations in the US or Muslim Council of Britain and so on, that, in effect, act as the “PR” arm for “righting wrongs, damage control, or addressing media/political errors of omission and commission”.

In Islamic finance, we have alphabet industry bodies: for accounting and auditing (Bahrain-based AAOIFI), for prudential regulations and governance (Malaysia-based IFSB), for Islamic capital and money market (Bahrain-based IIFM), etc.

Although, they have some common shareholders, let’s put aside the inability of these industry bodies to host one Islamic finance event that is supported by all of them. Let’s put aside lack of speaker invitation of one industry body to the head of its sister industry body for a presentation slot.

Notwithstanding present “turf” challenges, these industry bodies have done a commendable job of raising awareness and educating the wholesale stakeholders of the technical aspects of Islamic finance, in Muslim and non-Muslim countries, on standards, governance, and regulations. However, when it comes to the public relations and marketing of Islamic financial institutions or even damage control, there is a gaping hole and it is getting larger.

In fairness to the above-mentioned industry bodies, they have resource constraints, from manpower to finance, and, furthermore, expanding their mandate to include marketing and public relations for a geographically- dispersed and fragmented industry at various stages of development is unreasonable. However, something more needs to be done as Islamic finance is only strong as the weakest link.

The continued negative headlines will not go away even if we continue to ignore them or convince ourselves that it’s the growing pains of an emerging industry. They should be seen as the tip of the iceberg of issues and feedback on the industry’s perception/message.

Funding of body

The time has arrived for the majority to conclude there is need for an industry body that is tasked with public relations and marketing of Islamic finance at, say, the “wholesale level” - governments, regulators, financial institutions, law firms, western media, and so on. It allows for a universal message, a necessary pre-requisite to achieve harmonisation-cum-standardisation, that builds the foundation for local Islamic financial institutions to customise and add local content.

After determining a need for an industry body to promote and educate Islamic finance, the funding question must be addressed. Fortunately, the experience of AAOFI, IFSB, IIFM, etc, suggests the stakeholders could include the Islamic Development Bank (IDB), Islamic financial institutions (possibly one from every country that has declared itself an Islamic finance hub), forward-looking governments like Malaysia, the United Arab Emirates, and possibly the existing industry bodies (to include their technical message).

One of the lessons learned from the existing industry bodies is the need for adequate capitalisation and annual budget (adjusted for demand). It makes no sense to provide a shoestring budget when the objectives are global and the awareness and education is on-going and expanding.

Location of industry body

One of the takeaways about an industry body’s location is that it raises the profile of the country and the country raises the profile of the industry body, as there is now a “go to” place on the global map. Thus, bodies like the AAOIFI, IIFM and IIRA have raised the profile of Bahrain, while the IFSB, ISRA, and INCIEF have raised that of Malaysia.

Therefore, Dubai (UAE), Qatar, Pakistan, Indonesia, Brunei or even London, Paris, or Luxembourg have an opportunity to host an industry body that promotes awareness and information about Islamic finance and shows their commitment to the industry. Furthermore, much like the phrase “think global, act local”, it makes to have geographically situated satellite offices to address local time zone challenges.

Mandates

Beyond awareness, education, damage control, etc, one of the areas that require immediate attention is a more robust investor relations depart of Islamic financial institution, including addressing media training for executives. The media, especially western, wants access to senior executives, which implies challenging questions, and, it is here that the industry can best utilise them to send its message to the masses globally.

Additional responsibilities could include establishing and hosting a Davos-type event, including the US$640 billion (RM1.9 trillion) halal industry, in Europe, the Gulf and Southeast Asia. Thus, not Islamic finance per se, but the link of Islamic finance and funding education, healthcare, infrastructure, know-ledge-based economy, etc.

Some examples where the proposed PR Islamic body could have provided guidance for clear, coherent and concise clarifications:

SCHOLARS (confusion as to their role in the West), purification and zakat (not funnelling money to financing extremists), money exchange places in Muslim countries are not Islamic financial institutions, etc.

COORDINATE with other industry bodies for job openings, direct inquiries to appropriate industry bodies and Islamic financial institutions (reduce information cost for existing/potential users)

PRODUCT launches, new bank/takaful launched, etc. I’m not convinced that a general or financial PR firm can provide the needed specialised message and follow-ups that a dedicated body can direct.

DAMAGE control includes recent media frenzy on Islamic banking in Nigeria, Goldman Sachs’ US$2 billion sukuk, sukuk defaults, Islamic funds closing, Islamic bank (Dubai Bank and Islamic Bank of Britain) rescue, etc.

BRANDING of Islamic finance. Has time arrived to survey the stakeholders on the naming? In Turkey, its called Participation Banking and it conveys the essence and objective of the movement and is less politically charged, especially if Islamic finance is for all mankind.

Continuing to call it “Islamic”, combined with marketing materials emphasising syariah board and adherence, may not convey its universality.

Many of these issues also go to trust and confidence of Islamic finance by depositors, investors, shareholders, etc.

Conclusion

Although Islamic finance is less than 40 years old, the time has arrived for the industry to have a dedicated well-financed body to send a coherent and consistent message about the industry. This is an investment and not a cost, and not having such a body is to have continued schizophrenia headlines and resulting systemic brand risk.

Rushdi Siddiqui is the global head of Islamic finance at Thomson Reuters

In the context of the region, the UAE and especially Abu Dhabi, was the proverbial safe haven along with Qatar.

While it was not a great year by any stretch of the imagination, the UAE looked good simply because others such as Egypt, Bahrain, Libya and Syria were imploding. READ MORE HERE

January 17, 2012

By Rushdi Siddiqui, Global Head of Islamic Finance, Thomson Reuters

“The proper man understands equity, the small man profits.” Confucius.

The year 2011 was the year for [Malaysia] Shariah compliant index out-performance against all conventional developed and emerging market country indicies and almost all frontier countries.

The Islamic finance industry has not talked up the Islamic equity capital market story, as the Islamic debt capital market poster child, ‘Sukuk,’ has become the alter-ego of Islamic finance. But, does that amount to concentration brand and business risk for a $1 trillion, where Sukuk are, at best, 20% of Islamic finance?
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Will 2012 be the year of “come together” consolidation for Islamic banks?

Size is often the justification for achieving economies of scale, used to access deals for league table prominence, used as a buffer in a challenging environment, used as defensive measure to ward off unwanted suitors, and so on.

Islamic banks are very much like Islamic (equity) funds. There are hundreds of Islamic banks and funds, but the paid-up capital and assets under management, respectively, is too small to be meaningful. Yet, both, more so Islamic banks, present a unique situation (of an industry risk) of “too small to fail”.

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By Alon Ben-Meir

Due to a host of common denominators in the Arab world including the lack of traditional liberalism, the tribes’ power, the elites’ control of business, the hold on power by ethnic minorities, the military that cling to power, and the religious divide and Islamic extremism, the Arab Spring could sadly turn into a long and cruel winter. These factors are making the transformation into a more reformist governance, slow, filled with hurdles and punctuated with intense bloodshed. At the same time, each Arab country differs characteristically from one another on other dimensions including: history and culture, demographic composition, the role of the military, resources, and geostrategic situations. This combination of commonality and uniqueness has had, and will continue to have, significant impacts on how the uprising in each Arab country evolves and what kind of political order might eventually emerge.

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Continuous effort - not strength or intelligence - is the key to unlocking our potential. - Winston Churchill

How many Malaysian Islamic bankers work in senior positions at Islamic financial institutions in the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council), Pakistan and the UK? Conversely, how many non-Malaysians work in senior positions at Malaysian Islamic financial institutions?

Does the training and experience in Malaysia for Islamic finance somehow imply that it’s too Malaysia-centric (Shafi school) for GCC (Hanbali, Hanafi, Jafri schools) Islamic financial institutions? Does it somehow imply that there needs to be a “retraining” of Malaysian Islamic bankers to the GCC “way” of Islamic banking, finance and takaful?
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Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services said today that issuers in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries face rising refinancing risks over the next three years because the amount of debt maturing in the region will increase significantly between 2012-2014.

Industry experts estimate bonds and sukuk of about $25 billion will mature in 2012, rising to about $35 billion in 2014. Standard & Poor’s believes the region is therefore entering a challenging loan and bond refinancing cycle, especially given the ongoing volatility in capital markets and fears that slowing global economic growth is already curbing corporate debt issuance and heightening refinancing risk in the region.
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By Alon Ben-Meir

November 8, 2011

The Arab uprising must be seen as an integral part of a world in transformation. The technological and informational revolutions that have spurred (and continue to spur) globalization and interconnectedness between cultures make it impossible for tyrants to rule for the entirety of their lifetimes while mercilessly subjugating their peoples to lives of servitude with no prospect of ever tasting the true meaning of freedom.
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The Arab Spring not only cost at least three dictators their jobs but also $56-billlion in lost GDP for the worst affected countries, according to a statistical study by a consulting firm. READ MORE HERE

In many ways, Bahrain is the odd one out in the GCC bloc. The smallest state in the Gulf with the smallest economy and geographic area, Bahrain is also weak on natural resources, unlike its other fellow GCC members. Its Sunni rulers also find themselves in the minority and in the tough position of running a Shia-dominated population - other Gulf states don’t have that acute problem.

And these issues appear to be undoing much of Bahrain’s economic progress of the past few decades. READ MORE HERE

Qatar leaves regional competitors in the dust, rising as one of the most competitive economy in the world. But Arab Spring unkind to competitiveness of liberated Egyptian and Tunisian economies.

Another survey, another glowing review of Qatar. The World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Index 2011-12 finds the gas-rich state the region’s most competitive and emerging as the 14^th most business-friendly country in the world. READ MORE HERE

Gulf states have pledged $150-billion in response to the regional unrest, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch estimates. But it may not be enough. READ MORE HERE

It was an unlikely public display of affection. Close to 2,000 Syrian expatriates gathered on the streets of Jeddah, carrying Saudi flags and pictures of the Saudi King to thank him for criticising Syrian President Bashar Al Assad and demanding an end to his wretched violence against his own people.

In an unusually frank criticism, the King demanded that Al-Assad end the violence against his own people, breaking the silence in the Arab World over one of the biggest atrocities being committed within the region.

But, “as a number of Saudi youths started joining the gathering [of Syrian expatriates], police intervened and dispersed the people peacefully,” reported Arab News. READ MORE HERE

As the global economy lurches from one crisis to the next, we look at the prospects for the regional economies in troubling global conditions which could slash domestic growth.

Another quarter, another headache. Gulf governments have suffered a tumultuous first two quarters of the year and were hoping for some semblance of sanity in the third quarter. At the very least, regional governments were hoping that tragic developments within the Middle East had remained isolated - Syria, Yemen and Libya - leaving other countries in relative safety and peace.
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The Gulf states will need to create 3.3 million jobs over the next ten years, meanwhile the MENA region will need to create 30.7 million jobs by 2020, according to Al Masah Capital.

Unemployment in the Middle East stands at 10.3% and North Africa at 9.8%. While that may seem comparable or even favourable to some OECD countries - (U.S. 9.1% unemployment, Spain 21.3%), joblessness in MENA is a structural problem. READ MORE HERE

The emirate’s economy may benefit as international visitors choose hotels in Dubai over other troubled regional tourist destinations, notes Citibank. But Egypt and Bahrain will suffer from poor growth.

The UAE may benefit from the unrest in other parts of the Middle East, according to Citibank, with Dubai set to grow 5% this year and at an even faster clip at 6% in 2012.

“Due to its relative political stability, we believe there is a possibility of a diversion of commercial, investor and tourist activity from less stable parts of the region. The external sector thus is the main driver of the recovery, with gains being posted both in export growth, and a reduction in imports,” notes Citibank. READ MORE

The Japan earthquake, Middle East unrest and the euro crisis: You ain’t seen nothing yet. Here are eight more global shocks already under way or on the horizon. And 10 questions risk managers should ponder. Read More

Also Read:
Black Swan Fatigue

Eight Points Risk Managers Must Ponder

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The GCC has around $40bn of debt coming due each year over the next five years, says Standard Chartered Bank (SCB). Plus a chart that neatly shows SCB’s forecasts returns on each country’s bonds. Read More Here

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The Middle East crisis will see capital flowing out of the region, especially the vulnerable financial hub of Bahrain, according to a poll.

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As Japan’s nuclear meltdown puts the brakes on yet another power source, the world is looking at ME energy to fill the gap. Luckily, there is plenty coming on line, despite the region’s shot-term problems. Read More

Read why EFG-Hermes is worried about Omani and Bahraini growth. And the bank’s insightful regional heat map that neatly highlights problem areas. Read the full story here

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Just when analysts were giving up on a truly unified GCC, the six states have closed ranks with the unmistakable presence of Saudi tanks and soldiers on Bahraini soil. Read More
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