By Alon Ben-Meir

Due to a host of common denominators in the Arab world including the lack of traditional liberalism, the tribes’ power, the elites’ control of business, the hold on power by ethnic minorities, the military that cling to power, and the religious divide and Islamic extremism, the Arab Spring could sadly turn into a long and cruel winter. These factors are making the transformation into a more reformist governance, slow, filled with hurdles and punctuated with intense bloodshed. At the same time, each Arab country differs characteristically from one another on other dimensions including: history and culture, demographic composition, the role of the military, resources, and geostrategic situations. This combination of commonality and uniqueness has had, and will continue to have, significant impacts on how the uprising in each Arab country evolves and what kind of political order might eventually emerge.

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openDemocracy /Foter

By Alon Ben-Meir

In the wake of the Arab Spring and Prime Minister Erdogan’s championing of political reforms throughout the Arab world, it has now become more urgent than ever before to find an equitable solution to the Turkish-Kurdish conflict. Short of finding an immediate resolution to this debilitating struggle will not only severely compromise Turkey’s suggested model of successfully combining Islam and democracy, but it will additionally bankrupt its moral standing as it willfully continues to discriminate against 15 million Kurds who represent one-fifth of its population.
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By George Friedman

In a week when the European crisis continued building, the White House chose publicly to focus on announcements about the end of wars. The death of Moammar Gadhafi was said to mark the end of the war in Libya, and excitement about a new democratic Libya abounded. Regarding Iraq, the White House transformed the refusal of the Iraqi government to permit U.S. troops to remain into a decision by Washington instead of an Iraqi rebuff.
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Years after the removal of strongman Saddam Hussein, Iraq continues to struggle and show patchy progress. And while economic and political progress is wildly uneven, the cancer of corruption appears to be ever-present and is entrenching itself firmly in the political machinery of the country, undoing much of the painfully slow progress of the past few years. READ MORE HERE

Oil services and drilling in Iraq may only be currently a $600 million to $800 million market but there is a good likelihood that it could develop into a $6 to $8 billion market, according to Barclays Capital.

“We believe the run rate by year-end will be close to $1.5 billion. There are about 30 rigs drilling currently and NGP believes the rig count could ultimately surpass 300 rigs,” noted BarCap. “The scope of work being performed today is largely limited to workovers, with most drilling campaigns yet to commence. The future of the market lies in the integrated services model, in NGP’s opinion and ours. Service companies are not looked at with the same disdain as oil companies; however, there is an intense focus on cost controls due to cultural mindset.”

BarCap believes Iraq represents one of the largest multi-year growth stories for the oil services industry this decade. Companies that are able to execute and mitigate the political and security pitfalls in Iraq will be rewarded in our opinion.

(c) alifarabia.com

The Arab World’s tryst with democracy and freedom is unlikely to bear economic fruits, according to a study. Instead, we could well see a gridlock political environment and economic growth that continues to lag global averages.

The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) insightful study on how the Arab Spring initiative is likely to play out, suggests a 60% probability of a gridlocked political environment that is unlikely to result in realizing the aspirations of the region’s citizens. READ MORE HERE

Jordan and Morocco’s possible inclusion in the Gulf is a political move rather than an economic one, but there might be other - unlikely - candidates in the region far suitable for the purpose.

The potential inclusion of Morocco and Jordan in the GCC fold should be taken for what it is - a political move by the Gulf states to widen their sphere of influence in the region. Read More Here

As Japan’s nuclear meltdown puts the brakes on yet another power source, the world is looking at ME energy to fill the gap. Luckily, there is plenty coming on line, despite the region’s shot-term problems. Read More

Erste Research Group’s excellent report on oil crunches some fascinating data on oil and its current short-term and long-term influence on the global economy. We picked ten charts to highlights some key findings from the report.
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Citibank believes Iraq can shrug off its current turmoil to emerge as one of the world’s fastest growing economies in the world over the next 40 years. Read More

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