Egyptians are looking to Abdel Fattah al-Sisi to breathe life back into the economy following his victory in presidential elections, but analysts say the former field marshal is unlikely to pursue bold structural reforms. CONTINUE READING

Tunisia was Ground Zero of the Arab Spring in late 2010 after a street vendor immolated himself in protest against injustice and inequality. His act of despair sparked a region-wide protest that swept aside the regimes of Tunisia, Egypt and Libya. CONTINUE READING

Jonathan Rashad / Foter / CC BY-NC-ND

The main Egyptian stock market index could hit 8,500 before the end of the year as economic and political conditions stabilise, according to Pharos Holdings. CONTINUE READING

Presumably Hamish2k, the first uploader / Foter / CC BY-SA

Two North American oil and gas players have merged their operations in a bid to invest heavily in Egypt and other African states. CONTINUE READING

Egypt’s fresh stimulus of USD 4.9 billion would provide a short-term push to the economy, but the country’s medium-term challenges remain. CONTINUE READING

Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Iraq will be among the world’s 30 largest economies by 2028, according to forecasts by a London-based economic consultancy. CONTINUE READING

druidabruxux / Foter.com / CC BY-NC-SA

At a time when Egypt needs friends that persevere in its hour of crisis, the United States has chosen to spurn the country and continues to pursue an inconsistent foreign policy. CONTINUE READING

freestylee / Foter / CC BY

Egypt’s hotel occupancy rates continue to fall as the country’s hospitality sector reels from the continued political turmoil. CONTINUE READING

tricky (rick harrison) / Foter / CC BY-NC-SA

Chinese oil and gas giant Sinopec’s recent USD 3.1 billion bet on Egyptian natural gas highlights the country’s huge energy prospects, despite the major political challenges facing the country. CONTINUE READING

David A. Villa / Foter / CC BY

Amid the gloom, Egypt’s real estate sector continues to remain resilient. CONTINUE READING

sierragoddess / Foter / CC BY-ND

Amid the gloom, Egypt’s real estate sector continues to remain resilient.

SODIC, or Sixth of October For Development and Investment Company, saw strong new sales in the second quarter published on September 4. CONTINUE READING

Marwa Morgan / Foter / CC BY-NC-ND

Government expenditure has risen 45%, taxes 28% and subsidies 79% since the Egyptian revolution, according to a new report. CONTINUE READING

Jonathan Rashad / Foter / CC BY-NC-SA

By Rushdi Siddiqui

Dubai actually has most of the attributes of an Islamic economy. For example, an activity log for a person in Dubai may entail:

He lives in a residence that is Islamically mortgaged by, say, Tamweel, and it is ‘insured’ by Takaful Re Limited. The profit rate payment is off Thomson Reuter’s six-month Islamic Interbank Benchmark Rate (IIBR). He has peace of mind as his biggest ‘asset’ is Shariah-compliant.
Read More

Egypt is the fifth most likely country set to default according to latest data from S&P Capital IQ. CONTINUE READING

khalid almasoud / Foter / CC BY-NC

The Egyptian market soared more than 7% as news of the Muslim Brotherhood government’s ouster was announced and investors hoped it would lead to greater market-focused economic decision-making. CONTINUE READING

thetaxhaven / Foter / CC BY

In an ironic twist, the Egyptian army has saved democracy-seeking citizens from the Muslim Brotherhood. And while there is much rejoicing among the liberal, secular and even Salafists, the army may have set a dangerous precedent. CONTINUE READING

freestylee / Foter / CC BY-NC-SA

The Egyptian economy appears to be free falling as crisis after crisis seems to chip away at business confidence. CONTINUE READING

AhmadHammoud / Foter / CC BY

By Rushdi Siddiqu, Global Head of Islamic Finance at Thomson Reuters

APRIL 1 — “I never considered a difference of opinion in politics, in religion, in philosophy, as cause for withdrawing from a friend.” — Thomas Jefferson

“Life is not a spectator sport. If you’re going to spend your whole life in the grandstand just watching what goes on, in my opinion you’re wasting your life.” — Jackie Robinson

Everyone has an opinion; however, some people are shy to share. An interactive article, much like a survey, requiring readers’ opinions may actually encourage wider audience participation. For many of us, constructive comments about an online article actually provide more insights than the article itself.

Politics

Why is that when China, North Korea, Russia, Venezuela (under the late Hugo Chavez) made/make provocative comments about the US, the reaction from the Tea Party loyalists and Fox talk show hosts are not immediate and proportional, if at all, when compared to comments from stateless extremists like Al Qaeda?

Is it because, in the mind of the loyalists, these sovereignties are not trying to expand religion, and they can actually do economic and/or military harm to the US? What about election year politics?

Many of the Muslim countries are trying to diversify their economies from natural resources, commodities, conventional banking, basic manufacturing, typically 4-5 economic sector bias, to a knowledge based economy as part of 2020 and 2030 vision plans.

The knowledge pursuit implies linkage of educational budgets for clusters, technology parks, equity financing (venture capital and crowd funding), legal protections, mentoring, etc. One way of looking at the output would be the number of patents registered with the US Trade & Patent Office. Does Malaysia have the most patents from the OIC?

Why do selected Muslim countries with excessive surplus continue to purchase trophy assets in the US and western Europe, at times at top of the market, and not invest more of the money in the “national mission” of establishing and enabling an educational infrastructure for future generations?

I recently had an eye-opening conversation with the former Prime Minister Tun Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, where he articulated that education starts in the mother’s womb with appropriate nutrition, food and spiritual guidance! The Muslim world needs this type of thinking to close the “knowledge” approach gap with the developed world.

Why has the OIC, as a whole, not captured the imagination of emerging market investors like BRICS? Is it because, out of the 57 OIC states, 22 are least developed but only three are G-20, there is corruption, capital flight, brain drain, and a host of most of the world’s intra-country conflicts, etc? Thus, requiring a sub-OIC, like SAMI +3, Saudi Arabia, Ankara, Malaysia, Indonesia, Pakistan, Nigeria, and Egypt? Who will promote such a clustering?

Inferiority complex

Why is it when celebrities like Mike Tyson or the late Michael Jackson allegedly “revert” to Islam, it spreads like wildfire on Muslim websites (with excitement)? Why is it when the UK wanted to issue a sovereign Sukuk (roughly and badly translated as an Islamic bond), the Islamic finance world spoke of it as a “badge of arrival” for the niche market? Do Muslims have an identity crisis and still mentally and/or are psychologically colonised by Western/conventional offerings?

Faith, finance, food and fashion

Islamic finance isn’t just about finance, but linked to faith, food, fashion, etc., hence, when will it or, rather, how will it step up and be the financial “lubricant” to these satellite-linked activities? Islamic finance needs to serve the economy, and not be positioned as the economy!

Should Ogilvy Noor, an Islamic branding consultancy, examine the merits of rebranding Islamic finance to Participation Finance, especially if the cross-sell to non-Islamic customers and countries is one of the KPI growth stories? Furthermore, how best to “educate” the anti-syariah movement, which attempts to link, without evidence, Islamic finance to terrorism financing?

Why Islamic finance, biased towards real estate financing, does not finance a real economy-linked movement like the halal food industry, as they are both mentioned in the same chapter of the Quran? The irony of the situation is a Muslim can consume the end product of certified halal food companies, like Malaysia-based Prima, but may not be able invest in the stock as it violates one of the financial ratios (too much conventional debt)!

Is the blame game spread to both halal (need to tell a better story of halal as an asset class) and Islamic finance (halal, asset backed, is ripe for Sukuk offering)?

Is food manufacturing considered a “sexy” or exciting industry compared to mega developments and information super corridors, etc.? Do people get excited about a food park or cows or chickens? Yet, everyone knows how important food security is to a country; hence, the disconnect.

Why is ethnic cuisine a great ambassador for a country? For example, in US, we have Italian, Chinese, Lebanese and Mexican food, Turkish delights, Pakistani biryani, Indian curry, Polish sausages, etc.

What Malaysian food/meal would be a good ambassador to the US? Would satay be a perfect food ambassador as the signature dish of Malaysia Airlines? How many Malaysian fast-food franchises exist in the US/UK?

Why is healthy food, vitamins, etc, expensive in Malaysia? This is one area, along with health club membership, the government should sunset subsidise until people feel the difference and understand the implications of health.

Human element

Why do Muslim countries not encourage local sport development by way of budgets, facilities and international coaches? Some of the countries offer “citizenship” for non-nationals to represent the country, and, even then a victory appears to be hollow.

For example, assume 25 per cent of the 1.8 billion Muslims are under 15 years old, there are Michael Jordans, Lebron Jameses, Tiger Woodses, David Beckhams, etc, in the Muslim world, and they would be wonderful ambassadors and role models for the country and its youth.

Who has a greater contribution to society, one who does not wear the “veil” and provides much charitable contributions, including the kindness of a smile, or the taker of charity, who passes judgment?

The highlight of the Proud to Be Human moment for 2012 had to be the recovery of Malala Yousufzai, the brave young Pakistani girl shot by the Taliban for promoting girls’ education. Her actions should earn a Nobel Peace Prize for the courage of a “special ops soldier”.

The Nobel committee needs to send a strong signal about girls’ education by awarding her the 2013 Nobel Peace Prize for Courage and Contribution to Girls’ Education in Emerging Markets.

“Too often we… enjoy the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.” — John F. Kennedy

So, what is your thoughtful opinion?

* This is the personal opinion of the columnist.

By Rushdi Siddiqui, Global Head Of Islamic Finance at Thomson Reuters

The “Muslim travellers” is an important segment in the travel industry, however, not many hotel chains or destinations haven taken a serious look at their needs. So, many travellers have to manage their requirements while travelling or stick to familiar holiday destinations.

Now the media is full of reports on Muslim Travel market, as there are a host of destinations, hotel chains, tour operators etc., all targeting the billions of dollars of these travellers.
Read More

By Rushdi Siddiqui, Global Head of islamic Finance at Thomson Reuters

Is crowd funding the VC for the masses, finally? Crowd funding enables — through a collective cooperation of a network of investors — pooling capital and other resources to seed initiatives, startups, expansions, etc.

It also an opportunity to attain the core ethical values of Shariah and the intended purposes of Islamic Finance “to do good” by contributing to socioeconomic development.
Read More

February 04, 2013

FEB 4 — I never thought I would say that publicly, but the lesson learned is, “Never say never!”

“Never’s a hard call, isn’t it? Never-ish.” — Terry Venables

Tweeting: Reasons and dangers

First, I wanted to understand why people tweeted.

Because they have something of substance or importance to say? On hindsight, probably not, because hyper-connectivity updates make a minute ago seem historical!

Because they want to connect with “like-minded people?” On hindsight, some of those “minds” should be blocked!

Because they want a following? On hindsight, thank God for the ability to block, as this becomes an addiction for some!

Because they want to only follow, say, a famous athlete, movie star, etc?

Or that they just want to be part of a fad and then drop out when it fades?

Second, I wanted to know the “dangers” of tweeting.

That which has been tweeted cannot be deleted. Possibly retreated. But from a public relations 101 angle, that which cannot be deleted is a disaster for reputation management.

The 24/7 information download world we live in reminds us more often than not of our missteps and failures than it does our successes. Hence to say “be careful before touching send button” cannot be overemphasised.

The apology tweet cannot undo the damage done, case in point people like Rupert Murdoch and many athletes, politicians, business leaders and why even some spiritual leaders.

There is also the danger of pranks played on tweet accounts. Ones opened in your name or those hacking into your account to score a point or to make a statement for individual/group benefit. This has happened to political and spiritual leaders of late.

It’s interesting to note that politicians, like US President Barack Obama, have a team that tweets on their behalf. Why you ask? These are what you call an “impersonal tweet” driven by careful public relations management.

The tweet can bring “rain or sunshine” to the subject matter depending on prominence of the tweeter. For example, during a recent college football game, the sportscaster made remarks concerning the beauty of one of audience members, and she suddenly went from less than 10,000 followers to over 200,000 followers (including a superstar basketball player by the name of Lebron James). So tweets can create overnight fame or notoriety depending on which side of an issue one stands and supports, and the reaction one poses to responses.

There are the spam tweets, hence, the nuisance of time consuming blocking comes into the picture.

Third, and probably the most difficult question, what value will I bring into the tweeting wide world? I come from the realms of Islamic finance and halal hence, and, much like TV sitcom actors, we have generally encased ourselves in that narrow arena. But this is what we do, and does not define who we are.

At one level, all of us have secret aspirations of becoming superstar athletes, CEOs of Fortune 500 companies, top journalists, movie stars, doctors, scholars, can-do politicians, inventors and entrepreneurs, better dads/moms, sons/daughters, even bad guys, etc., where what we say moves companies, markets, voters and arguments.

Thus, it seems tweeting is about being the first on headline commenting and/or reporting from the mundane (subjective) to the moving.

Exposure and experience

The nature of my “calling card”, global in title, has made me an international road runner. It has exposed me to so much in the last 15 years, from airline lounges, airlines and journeys of, at times, 17 hours, airports, hotels, taxis, tourist traps, meetings, etc. Thus, at times, I feel like a secret shopper, business development officer (outside my profession), observation tower (of people, marches, events, speeches, natural phenomenon, etc.), roving reporter, etc.

I want to share these moments, in the form of 140-character mini op-eds, but never took the first step for a number of reasons (probably intimidated by such media), and, on hindsight, missed the opportunity to connect and learn from others (much earlier). Initially, I would have probably tweeted to connect with fellow practitioners in Islamic finance and halal (large community?), and then expanded to the more pressing issues in the Muslim world, from sports to athletes to policy to tolerance to hypocrisy, and connectivity and perception influence of the non-Muslim world.

Lincoln quotes for Muslims

Let’s start with a tweet for all Muslims and non-Muslims:

“I don’t like that man. I must get to know him better.” Abraham Lincoln, 16th president of the US. How is this even different to the basic teachings of Islam or any other religion? Muslims, including myself, are you reading, understanding, and executing? The non-Muslim world needs to heed the advice of this statesman towards Islam.

He also said: “… Nearly all men can stand adversity, but if you want to test a man’s character, give him power.’” All of us have examples of people we know or can predict who will fail or have failed this character test! The Muslim world is not only cursed with black gold (oil), but also power without accountability still prevails in many parts of its society. Do we thank the colonial geographic boundaries that seem to have created mental barriers?

What would I ask in the world of Islamic finance and halal

I would tweet the following:

Students: they are spending money on courses, diplomas, etc., and want meaningful jobs upon graduation; yet, we talk about shortage of skilled people, huh? Walk the talk, Islamic finance.

Scholars: they are entitled to a livelihood to support families, but what is reasonable number of board membership?

Man on street: Islamic finance is not Qard Hassan (benevolent loan) or charity, but about profits not profiteering. Where are the imams, as they are the local trusted gatekeepers to the community, and, in Arab Spring countries, it’s about the mass retail.

Disenfranchised (bulk of the 1.6 billion Muslims): we are still waiting for Islamic finance and many of our Muslim-majority countries are non-co-operative, whom do we turn to? Shadow banking system is the only alternative as only collateral is life/blood?

Regulators/public sector: need to establish foundation for market, initially lead market and then regulate market, and cannot be an indefinite market participant as the “crowding out” phenomenon kicks in.

Anti-shariah movement: present your evidence on it financing terrorism, Malaysia and Dubai would host such an event to discuss its veracity.

Conventional institutions in Islamic finance: are you about absorbing liquidity or providing value and commitment? HSBC Amanah downsized operations in a number of countries where margins are not being met, profits versus commitment (beyond short term).

Islamic finance: you have proved you are viable (alternative), credible (non-Islamic institutions involved), durable (better survived the recent external shock, but not by much), but what are your sustainable and scalable growth plans?

Halal industry: what is your story (brand)? Why are you even more fragmented than Islamic finance? Don’t you realise you’re an asset class? Malaysia, you will just lose the halal hub title if you do not focus in building such companies (inorganically) as global brands versus the continued comments of Jakim, HDC, etc.

Modern-day lifetime achievement award for Islamic finance: Sh Mohammad bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Ruler of Dubai, VP and Prime Minister of UAE, two words: continued commitment.

The rest of the world: what is Islamic finance and how has it changed lives, inspired humanity, or rather where is IF in moments of global tragedies and catastrophes?

OIC tweets

I would tweet on following:

Why do we have “His/Your Highness”, “Your Majesty”, “Sultan”, “Emir”, “Prince and crown prince”, “Datuk and Tan Sri”, “King and Queen”, etc. when the Prophet of Islam did not have such references. Yes, we respect our leaders and titles like President, Vice-President, Prime Minister. Why can’t we make them more human, approachable and accessible? Aren’t these titles creating a mental and social class war/barrier? Is this an effective way to rule in the 21st century?

Where is the healthy food in Malaysia? Yet, what little is available tends to be expensive! I have been coming to Malaysia for 15 years, and go to the gym religiously, and rarely see Malaysian men there. Obesity-cum-diabetes is a major issue in the GCC, and Malaysia may not be far behind! (But Malaysian men may be spending time on football pitches and badminton courts — who knows?).

We have 57 Muslim countries in the OIC, but what clustering has captured the investing world’s attention like BRICS? I suggested SAMI + 3 — Saudi Arabia, Ankara (Turkey), Malaysia, Indonesia, Egypt, Pakistan and Nigeria. It could also be MIST + 3, but MIST implies a fog, haze, etc, lack of clarity.

To tweet or not

When Microsoft started making computers in the ‘70s, it wanted to put a PC in every home. In less than 40 years the world has changed and today we have a computer in every pocket/handbag.

The dangers of tweeting remain. Once you start, it is difficult to get out of it. It may rule your life (i.e. one keeps checking the phones at the expense of real-life human contact). But like everything in life, moderation is key in action.

Need to tweet to connect with a society wired on social media, yet to do so with wisdom, caution and more importantly substance. There are always the red herrings of “committed” tweeting communities that feel the need to share their every move — it is this culture that perhaps still stops those who would/could benefit the world of “tweet” from tweeting.

In conclusion, to tweet or not to tweet is no longer the relevant question to being relevant today. Maybe the question should be — do I tweet to share my next appointment or my next meal or my next relationship — or do I tweet to make the world a better place? To do my small part in making that difference?

So, for those about to tweet, we salute you (but be careful and responsible).

Joonas Plaan / Foter / CC BY

BP’s decision to reportedly spend USD11-billion in Egypt’s deep-water gas deposits is a significant move by the oil major which could be a game-changer for the country’s economy. CONTINUE READING

Investors are circling around Egypt’s key sectors, looking for opportunities and bargains on undervalued prices of key assets.
The economic fallout from the Arab Spring revolution in Egypt has changed the landscape radically and offered new opportunities for regional investors. CONTINUE READING

By Rushdi Siddiqui, Global Head of Islamic Finance at Thomson Reuters

President Barack “Peace” — as no new wars in last four years — Obama may be less beholding to special interests during the second term. He will now want to leave a legacy behind, both domestically and on foreign policy. However, his legacy will now be held hostage to the court of public opinion.

The re-election of Obama, both on popular (50 per cent to 48 per cent) and electoral (303 to 206) votes, is a message sent by the American people to work smarter (not only harder), longer, faster, and with partners, to “fix” what is broken, “mend” what needs fixing, “push” forward what is working and a “probation” to try new initiatives.

The post-election comments for the peaceful president from world leaders, from secular to spiritual, have been positive, glowing, and extending an open hand to assist in the hard work ahead as all of us are in the same “boat” called humanity wanting dignity.

In the second term, Obama needs to focus on Asia, generally, before China’s once-in-decade political make-over starts execution (no pun intended), and possibly, a leading Muslim country, specifically, as an example a country which closely represents US ethnic, religious, and cultural diversification and “tolerance.”

Maybe it’s time for the president and the US to find and get behind an “Egypt of Asia”, as the oil and (perceived) regional influence of certain countries of recent past did not pan out as expected.

Omnipotence?

Will there be peace and stability in the Middle East within the next four years? It may be easier to have an Olympic gold medal winner in badminton from Malaysia than find the elusive peace in a region of piecemeal countries united and, yes, divided by tribalism.

The omnipotence of the US as the voice of reason and calming stability backed by her economic and military might has been downgraded (let’s leave S&P out of the equation) by the misadventures of George “Bring it on” Bush and the systemic risk to global economy by the sub-prime fiasco (also under George Bush), and the corresponding rise of the BRICS: Brazil, Russia, India, China and newcomer South Africa. Clearly, the power has shifted away from the US. Where it has shifted to is another issue, as it’s not debt battered and financially bleeding Europe.

Hotspot

The Arab Spring flushed out the regional diminishing US influence, including the unflinching support of entrenched poster child ally, Hosni Mubarak/Egypt, a benevolent dictator.

However, the Middle East remains important mainly because of black gold, oil, and the havoc a price escalation can play on industries and capital markets in an already weakened global economy.

The Middle East also remains a region of “unknown knowns”, composed of a complicated jigsaw puzzle of Egypt (controlled chaos), Libya (chaos), Lebanon (proxy chaos), Palestinian/Israel (two-state solution), Syria (civil war), Yemen (drones), Iran (nuclear), Al-Qaeda (stateless terrorism) and so on.

Although not mentioned on any geographical or topical defining map, Pakistan and Afghanistan are an extension of the region for the United States’ earlier intervention and on-going challenges. To put it differently, “they broke it, and have to buy it,” and with no return policy.

Thus, it will take more than four years of precision focus, shuttling negations, wisdom patience, printing press of money and, possibly, divine intervention to have an acceptable “normality” i.e. absence of conflict, not necessarily peace.

Expanding attention

The primary focus will continue on the Middle East, but, much like five-year business plans looking for new business opportunities in different geographies, the US needs to remove the “horse blinders” and see the Muslim world not as one, but as many countries with rich histories, cultures and influences. Thus, oil/gas reserves, military bases and large domestic population will continue to be important, but possibly not outcome determinative.

To make Obama’s second term more interesting on foreign policy, vis-à-vis the 57-country Muslim world, selected Muslim countries need to “pitch” themselves as representative of democratic and religious principles (is this possible?). There are three Muslim countries in the G-20, Turkey, Indonesia and Saudi Arabia, and these are only a starting point.

Other countries worthy of consideration, based upon metrics-like population, GDP growth and 2020/2030 vision, capital markets, democratic principles, OIC influence, etc include Egypt, Pakistan, Nigeria and Malaysia. As mentioned above, the court of public opinion will also matter for Obama, hence, from the above-mentioned destinations, the American public has a “challenging” opinion about these countries, except one.

The Malaysian elections are around the corner next year, and the incumbent and opposition can expand their platform to pitch about Malaysia to both the White House and Congress.

Winning the Nobel Peace Prize early in his first term is a tough benchmark act to follow for the second term for any democratically elected leader. His second term may be an extension of hope that transforms to trust that brings change, hence, actually earning the Prize that he accepted in the first term.

* The views expressed here are the personal opinion of the columnist.

The Egyptian economy has managed to avoid the worst, but it needs foreign investment to get better. CONTINUE READING

lumaxart / Foter / CC BY-SA

Egyptian and Emirati-listed companies are expected to lead strong growth in the third quarter, as both countries recover from their economic challenges. CONTINUE READING

Morocco, Egypt, Libya and Algeria are at high risk to a Eurozone meltdown, but Gulf states hardly have reason to be complacent, according to new research. CONTINUE READING

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ansik / Foter

The UAE has more than a million LinkedIn users, Egypt has a quarter of the region’s Facebook users and the most popular for Twitter was Bahrain, according to latest data. And guess which brand was the most popular among UAE Facebook users? CONTINUE READING

By Rushdi Siddiqui, Global Head of Islamic Finance, Thomson Reuters

Will the “truth” set Islamic banking free from the “cheer-leading reins” that may be holding it back from authenticity-cum-innovation?

Mushtak Parker provides his insights on a successful Islamic banker and institution and some of the milestones of the industry.
Read More

In a brilliant stroke, Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi removed and retired Field Marshal Hussein Tantawi, the defence minister and the leading Supreme Council of armed Forces figure, apart from heads of the navy, airforce and air defence. In addition, Lieutenant General Sami Enan also stepped down as the Army’s Chief-of- Staff. CONTINUE READING

With politics dictating Egypt’s economy, analysts expect the banking sector to recover only by next year. Also, can Egyptian banks survive a devaluation of the pound? CONTINUE READING

As Egyptians Google the name of their unknown Prime Minister to find out more about him, the economic ills of the country are well-known to all. CONTINUE READING

By Rushdi Siddiqui, Global Head of Islamic Finance, Thomson Reuters

The Goal: The central issue is about the industry controlling its own destiny

“Behind every success is endeavour… behind endeavour, ability… behind ability, knowledge… behind knowledge, a seeker ….” Unknown.

As the blessed month of Ramadan arrives, here is my “seeking” list for Islamic finance. It’s not about another voice asking when the International Islamic Liquidity Management Corporation (IILM) will issue its first paper or disagreeing with CIMB Group CEO Datuk Seri Nazir Razak’s comment on “rolling back” government’s involvement in business, but more to do with controlling our own Islamic finance manifest destiny.
Read More

After a rollicking start to the year, most Middle East markets joined the global economic doom. But Egypt was a standout and was the world’s second best performing market in the first half. CONTINUE READING

S&P may have been quick to put Egypt’s sovereign rating on negative watch, but as the Egyptian bourse highlighted with a 7.5% rise, the election of Mohamed Morsi should be seen as progress and a step forward for the country – despite the challenges ahead…. CONTINUE READING

EFG expects the economy to post a 3% growth this year, after contracting nearly 1% in 2011. But it has largely been a jobless recovery as unemployment stands at a decade high of little over 12%. READ MORE HERE

While Jordan has avoided the turmoil of Libya and Egypt, it has always seemed like a country on edge ever since the Arab Spring swept across the region.

 CONTINUE READING

With the original Egyptian revolutionaries routed in both the parliamentary and presidential elections, the hapless citizens are now weighing the pros and cons of the two remaining presidential candidates -Mohamed Morsy, the Muslim Brotherhood candidate representing Egypt’s Islamic bloc, and Ahmed Shafiq, a former military man and the country’s former prime minister, who is widely seen as a remnant of the country’s last regime. CONTINUE READING

While the world’s eyes are trained on Egypt’s historic presidential elections, the country’s citizens are hoping the new president - whoever it may be - brings in much need political and economic stability. READ MORE HERE

By Rushdi Siddiqui, Global Head of Islamic Finance, Thomson Reuters

To grow, Islamic banks must compete with conventional lenders

Dedicated Islamic banks are generally national in nature and in certain markets have reached their ‘natural market share’ for Islamic banking, according to an A.T. Kearney study.

A recent report by the consulting firm A.T. Kearney, The Future of Islamic Banking, and a Reuters article, ‘No windfall from Qatar ban on Islamic windows’, have generated much productive chatter globally.
Read More

The Egyptian economy could grow by 4% in the current fiscal year despite a plethora of challenges facing the country. READ MORE HERE

‘Be careful for what you wish for, you just might get it.’

And Egypt has got democracy. But it’s not to everyone’s liking, especially as it has resulted in some strange bedfellows, alliances and personalities that many Egyptians were hoping would be confined to the dustbin of history. READ MORE HERE

This article was published before many of the candidates were disqualified.

With Gulf economies poised for growth on the back of strong macroeconomic policies, regional stock markets are also set for growth. READ MORE HERE

“We must remember that one determined person can make a significant difference, and that a small group of determined people can change the course of history.” - Sonia Johnson

The recent BRICS summit in New Delhi, India, should be a wake-up call for the Muslim world’s own proposed BRICS, called SAMI: Saudi, Ankara, Malaysia and Indonesia.

The BRIC story, Brazil Russia, India and China, started in 2001 by a Goldman Sachs’ Jim O’Neill, “Building Better Global Economics BRICs”. In late 2010, an “S” was added for South Africa. These are growth markets with increasing political clout, and combining for nearly 50 per cent of the world’s population, US$14 trillion (RM42 trillion) GDP, and excess of US$4 trillion (RM12 trillion) foreign reserves (source: Wikipedia).

Today, politics is increasingly subordinated to economic capitalism, as ideology can no longer address the concerns associated with the “Misery” Index: unemployment, inflation, etc. The author initially raised the “Muslim BRIC”, SAMI, concept last year, as existing Muslim country clusters like OIC, GCC, MENA, CIS, etc., have not captured the imagination of investors.

However, after meeting with various institutions and individuals, like Dr Nasser Saidi, chief economist of DIFC, from the Muslim countries, one of the most commonly heard feedback was the four country clustering, SAMI, was too small and not representative sample of the 57 Muslim countries (OIC).

Another feedback was there are political sensitivities with OIC sub-clustering, hence, it seems the politics (cart) are placed before economics and finance (horse). Finally, sporadic comments included, “why include Malaysia?” Answer is below.

SAMI + 3

The collective market place is more intelligent than an individual, hence, proposed Muslim majority countries to add to SAMI could include: Nigeria, Pakistan and Egypt. If we look at metrics for present and growth concerning population, GDP, regional influence (politically and economically), Islamic finance, halal industry, nuclear capability (Pakistan), inclusion in other grouping (Egypt as part of CIVETS, and NIGERIA as part of Next-11), etc., these three countries are ahead of their brethren Muslim countries.

If we look at projections from the 2007 Goldman Sachs study, BRIC and N11 Nations, we see that Nigeria (percentage growth from 2006 to 2050 is 1416 per cent), Egypt (1600 per cent) and Pakistan (908 per cent) are mentioned in the top 22 countries for GDP by 2050.

The challenge now becomes what to call the new grouping (not political club)? The world is about sound-bites and catch-phrases, as goes to retention and recall, hence, the appropriate naming will goes to reach/traction, assuming the combined substance of the countries conveys a strong message of growth and opportunity.

Thus, do we call the proposed grouping as SAMI + 3, SAMI and Beyond (sounds more like a cartoon outer-space movie), SAMI-PNE (pronounced as symphony) or something else.

The ideal situation may just be SAMI + 3. Why? As other Muslim countries grow and develop, they can be added easily without having to reconfigure the name. The only issue with plus (+) Muslim country scenario is the additions to not get the branding in the marquee name. Well, there are trade-offs and difficult to satisfy everyone.

(It should be noted that metrics on political freedom, human rights, corruption, illiteracy, healthcare, infrastructure, per capita income, brain drain, capital flight, etc., were not factored into the equation in suggesting Nigeria, Pakistan and Egypt.)

SAMI + 3 Bank

The naming of the Muslim country cluster is only a beginning. The lubricant for any country that wants to become high income economy is finance, Islamic, conventional or combination.

For example, does the Muslim world need a development bank? We already have the Triple A rated Islamic Development Bank, and, it has done a remarkable job since its inception under HE Dr Ahmad Mohamed Ali Al-Madani. However, one cannot have enough capital, especially, when some of the least developed countries with the fastest growing population happen to be Muslim countries.

(Some “experts” have equated the volatile mix of “poverty, population and pulpit pronouncements” as breeding ground for opposition, coups and extremism.)

If the recent BRICS summit can raise the prospect of a development bank, “BRICS Bank”, to fund infrastructure and development projects in the emerging markets, which happen to be all Muslim countries, then SAMI + 3 needs to consider merits of comparable bank.

Thus, as an alternative to the multi-lateral World Bank, Asia development Bank, Africa Development Bank, etc., is being considered for not only infrastructure but also facilitating trade, the Muslim world also needs to have some parallel thinking/development to capture the sloshing liquidity.

However, it should not be another dedicated Islamic financial institution or proposed Islamic Mega bank, as many Muslim and non-Muslim countries (read India) neither have a regulatory infrastructure in place nor have made Islamic finance a priority.

The lack of interest in Islamic finance may be due to the now disproven argument (in North Africa) about catering to Islamists. The more important point is not to wait for the “‘i’ to be dotted and ‘t’ to be crossed” for arrival of Islamic finance in these jurisdictions, as the law necessity can be invoked as interim suggestion for finance to fund growth, development and trade.

Malaysia Leads SAMI + 3

Malaysia has never been equated to be a surplus capital provider vis-à-vis the petro-liquid GCC region, however, increasing number of entities in the Gulf are raising money in Malaysia via sukuk and bond.

Thus, Malaysia may actually be perched in a unique (window closing) position to lead not only the Muslim world, but also the emerging markets to establish what the BRICS summit suggested: lead, house and host a (SAMI + 3) development Bank.

Thus, for once, a Muslim country leads by providing a model for BRICS with a “go to market concept” model development bank.

Malaysia has history of “vision, will and means”, in achieving the imaginable, be it overcoming the Asian financial crisis without IMF medicine, becoming a globally recognised Islamic finance hub from a modest start in 1983 or spear-heading and housing a multi-jurisdictional entity, IILM, to address short term liquidity for the US$1 trillion (RM3 trillion) industry.

Answer: Malaysia should be included in SAMI + 3!

For example, five of the IILM supporting countries, Malaysia, Saudi, Turkey, Indonesia, and Nigeria, overlap with SAMI + 3, and the new Egypt and Pakistan should be amenable to a development bank that could assist in job creating trade and investment.

Reality v Rhetoric

The real work commences after the photo-op sessions are over, and one finds there are real world challenges, from subtle to real and in-between. For example, some of the BRICS challenges that may have application with the proposed SAMI + 3 clustering:

Border challenges: India and China

* Indonesia and Malaysia or yesterday’s news?

Governing Ideology: Communism (China), Democracy (India/Brazil/South Africa), Democratic Authoritarianism (Russia)

* Outside of Saudi Arabia, six of the seven SAMI + 3 are democratically elected governments.

* Military influence (budget as percentage of GDP) can be seen within Turkey, Egypt, Pakistan, Nigeria and possibly Indonesia.

Regional influence (financial, military, etc): Russia and China

* Saudi Arabia and (the new) Egypt?

* Interesting possibility of India (BRICS) and Pakistan (SAMI + 3) for regional influence.

Obviously, there are other areas were “intent concerns” may lie amongst BRICS countries, but it would appear there are fewer areas of mutual suspicion within the SAMI + 3 for, say, a development bank.

First Summit

Malaysia, unlike many Muslim countries, typically puts on good international shows, be it conferences or summits. The time may be right and ripe to put on the First SAMI + 3 Summit in Malaysia, like the first BRIC Summit in 2009, and, like BRIC, led initially by finance ministers to issue a declaration for a just, financially inclusive, impact investing multi-polar world order.

This could possibly be bigger than or complimentary to the Asean story. The political impact, within Malaysia and outside, is a needed “feel good” story today within the Muslim world.

Thus, the alliance, SAMI + 3, may be just counter-balance to BRICS and G-7 on geo-political affairs.

The faces and places of a New World Order: Control our destiny or be defined by others?

Egypt?

Rushdi Siddiqui is the global head of Islamic finance at Thomson Reuters

With Gulf economies poised for growth on the back of strong macroeconomic policies, regional stock markets are also set for growth.

The two most liquid GCC markets - Dubai and Saudi Arabia - are both up well over 20% since the start of the year, with the Egyptian market also rising an astonishing 33%. READ MORE HERE

It has been a massive quarter for stock markets around the world. The S&P 500 - arguably the most influential indicator of global stock market health - had its biggest quarter since 1998. In the first three months of 2012, the Dow Jones industrial average gained 8.1%, the S&P rose 12% and the Nasdaq advanced 19%. READ MORE HERE

By Rushdi Siddiqui, Global Head of Islamic Finance at Thomson Reuters

We already know about displaced commercial risk, credit, liquidity, operational, Shariah non-compliant, and markets risks in Islamic finance. What about ‘key-person’ risk in Islamic finance?

What does a former Minister of Economy of France (Christine Lagarde), former Prime Minister of United Kingdom (Gordon Brown) and former under Secretary for International Affairs, US Treasury (John Taylor) have in common? They were all high profile public sector personalities pushing Islamic finance in their respective jurisdictions, and, upon leaving office, the movement’s momentum has been meandering or has stop ‘cold’ in the tracks.
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The Egyptian economy contracted by 0.3% in the fourth quarter ending a politically-momentous but economically-forgettable year for the country. READ MORE HERE

mmoneib /Free Photos

A spate of new announcements from international oil companies suggests Egypt’s mature oil and gas sector remains formidable.

Despite significant political and economic problems in Egypt and falling crude production levels, the country’s oil and gas sector remains attractive to international companies. READ MORE HERE

By Rushdi Siddiqui, Global Head of Islamic Finance, Thomson Reuters

There are only two ways to conquer and enslave a nation, one is by sword, the other is by debt,” said John Adams, the second president of the United States.

If we expand the quote, it could include debt without collateral asset, trading of such debt, and enhancing it with leverage. There are consequences as there are market cycles.

Can Occupy Wall Street (OWS), public good and Islamic finance converge? Yes, through the lofty principals of economic justice.

The essence of Islamic finance is about “risk sharing over risk transfer”, as it implies a financial and economic system of checks and balances. It implies an “ethical” financial intermediation linked to the real economy for “moral” value-added output. It implies modalities of contracts whose foundations are based on transparency, where asymmetric information is minimised to prevent abuses against the weaker counter-party.

Furthermore, Islamic finance is about financial inclusion paving the path for distributive wealth and income, and ensuing economic opportunities. Finally, it’s all about business and not religion, and it about profits but against profiteering.

OWS

According to commonly used information website Wikipedia, Occupy Wall Street is a protest movement which began last September 17… against social and economic inequality, high unemployment, greed, as well as corruption, and the undue influence of corporations — particularly from the financial services sector — on government. The protesters’ slogan ‘We are the 99 per cent’ refers to the growing income and wealth inequality in the US between the wealthiest 1 per cent and the rest of the population.

It would seem many of the concerns raised by the OWS movement were similar to its predecessor spark, the Arab Spring phenomenon, except replacing “corporations” with “corrupt and repressive governments”. As of now, the Arab Spring has had more impressive results than OWS after helping bring new governments in Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya, new governments in the “wait” in Yemen and Syria, and “new governance” in other regional countries.

The question becomes, how would the OWS movement react to Islamic finance? During a London demonstration along the OWS lines in 2011, a protester held up a sign, “Let’s bank the Muslim way”. Obviously, the reference is to Islamic banking, but the jury is still out if the industry will receive OWS’ endorsement as many of the financial institutions, such as HSBC and Citi, protested against have a presence in Islamic finance.

Public good

In March last year, the Securities Commission Malaysia (SC) and the Oxford Centre for Islamic Studies (OCIS) held a two-day closed roundtable on Islamic Finance and the Public Good.

Dr Raja Nazrin Shah, Crown Prince of Perak and Financial Ambassador to the Malaysia International Islamic Financial Centre (MIFC), who officiated the roundtable, said, “public good is one concept that is common to both conventional and Islamic finance.

The values advocated by Sharia are not only confined to the detailed technical aspects of transactions, but also in the extent to which the objectives of Sharia are achieved. If every aspect of Islamic finance were to be subject to a public good test, arguably no negative repercussion could ever arise.

Likewise, if all conventional financial products were subjected to a public good test, the catastrophic effects of the recent crisis could have been avoided; and finance would serve its rightful purpose — as an engine that drives and supports the real economy.”

At the same roundtable, the Chairman of SC, Tan Sri Zarinah Anwar, said, “… the virtues of Islamic fin-ance need to be unlocked further. Public good, ethics, shared values, governance, and real and tangible contributions to the economy hold the key to innovation and growth. Profits involving a higher social purpose and objective represent values that will create not just economic returns, but also comply with universal ethical standards. Putting all these in place will strengthen the universality and acceptability of Islamic finance, enabling it to offer a distinctive value proposition.”

Thus, Islamic finance is not about privatisation of profits and socialisation of losses by the financial sector. It’s about accountability rate of returns, via due diligence, as pre-determined rates of returns do not exist in Islamic finance.

Conclusion

When Islamic financial institutions, such as banks and takaful operators, are allowed to reach the point of presenting a systemic risk to the industry, that is, being too large to fail, then we have become conventionally inefficient. If bailouts and bankruptcies, combined with capital protected bonuses, become a common place in Islamic finance, then we will have our own Occupy Salaam Street (OSS) movement in the Islamic finance hubs.

However, today the aspirations and inspiration of OWS — the principals of economic justice — are aligned to the objectives of Islamic finance. It is about building a dynamic financial eco-system based on humanitarian beliefs, avoiding unjust enrichment and profiteering, and allowing for financial inclusion of the 99 per cent to achieve a basic necessity: human dignity.

The writer is Global Head, Islamic Finance and OIC Countries at Thomson Reuters. Opinions expressed here are the writer’s own

Feb 17, 2012
By Rushdi Siddiqui, Global Head of Islamic Finance, Thomson Reuters

Q: We are hearing more comments from Islamic bankers who are saying Sukuk are bonds with an Islamic wrapper, and the industry needs equity/investment sukuk, what are your comments?

YTD: Let’s consider the question and its source and then boil it down to a statement. Islamic investment bankers say they (when they say “the industry” I have to assume they are speaking of themselves) need equity/investment sukuk. Simple answer? AAOIFI has developed them. I have always maintained that the market will determine the direction of Islamic finance. It may well be at the present time that the market for sukuk is driven by the needs of Islamic bankers in treasury departments. These needs include predictable pricing. Thus, they have their own preferences for certain types of sukuk, maybe not the same types as Islamic investment bankers. And when the saturation point is reached, by which I mean when the treasuries of Islamic banks have sukuk holdings sufficient for their needs, regulatory and otherwise, the secondary market that everyone is hoping for will develop. It’s beginning already in a limited way. And I share the frustration of our bankers. But we need to keep working.

Q: A large number of Sukuk defaulted in last several years, about 30 from Malaysia with 10 BBA and 16 Murabaha structure, are defaults a cause for concern or actually beneficial for the industry?

YTD: At the 2005 IFSB conference in London on the subject of law and sukuk the subject of defaults, then only a possibility, was discussed often and widely. After all, until there are defaults, it is next to impossible to know how judges will view sukuk. The problem is multiplied when different jurisdictions and legal systems are involved. We are now, therefore, in discovery mode. And while it is indeed lamentable that sukuk have failed and investors have suffered losses, it is now the responsibility of all involved to study the cases to see what might be done better in the future.
Read More

Thirty-three Middle East banks are among 500 of the world’s most trusted banks, according to a new study. READ MORE HERE

In the context of the region, the UAE and especially Abu Dhabi, was the proverbial safe haven along with Qatar.

While it was not a great year by any stretch of the imagination, the UAE looked good simply because others such as Egypt, Bahrain, Libya and Syria were imploding. READ MORE HERE

January 17, 2012

By Rushdi Siddiqui, Global Head of Islamic Finance, Thomson Reuters

“The proper man understands equity, the small man profits.” Confucius.

The year 2011 was the year for [Malaysia] Shariah compliant index out-performance against all conventional developed and emerging market country indicies and almost all frontier countries.

The Islamic finance industry has not talked up the Islamic equity capital market story, as the Islamic debt capital market poster child, ‘Sukuk,’ has become the alter-ego of Islamic finance. But, does that amount to concentration brand and business risk for a $1 trillion, where Sukuk are, at best, 20% of Islamic finance?
Read More

January 15, 2012

A year after HSBC released its 2050 report which estimated that Egypt would surpass Saudi Arabia as the largest economy in the Middle East, the bank has dug deeper in its crystal ball-gazing research.

The first report limited its forecast to the world’s 30 largest economies by 2050 - but has now expanded it to 100 nations and includes more Middle East nations.
And like the first edition of the report, there are a few surprises. READ MORE HERE

enggul /Foter

January 15, 2012

Egypt is now among the ten riskiest sovereigns in the world, according to the latest report from CMA Datavision. In other words, Egypt is among the nations most likely to default on its debt.

While that does not necessarily mean that Egypt will default, its spread has risen as investors are nervous that the country could default. READ MORE HERE

January 2, 2012

By Rushdi Siddiqui, Global Head of Islamic Finance, Thomson Reuters 2011

“An optimist stays up until midnight to see the new year in. A pessimist stays up to make sure the old year leaves.”Bill Vaughn.

Islamic finance is staying up for new year for …….

The survey format is straight forward, 16 questions with multiple answers.
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The year 2011 has been extraordinary not just for the tectonic shift in the region’s political structures, but also the extraordinary pressures and opportunities faced by many regional economies.

With four dictators ousted - including one dead - many others were shaken to the core - the after shocks have reverberated throughout the region in 2011 and will no doubt be felt in 2012.

We identify 50 amazing statistics that highlight the remarkable year: READ MORE HERE

Will 2012 be the year of “come together” consolidation for Islamic banks?

Size is often the justification for achieving economies of scale, used to access deals for league table prominence, used as a buffer in a challenging environment, used as defensive measure to ward off unwanted suitors, and so on.

Islamic banks are very much like Islamic (equity) funds. There are hundreds of Islamic banks and funds, but the paid-up capital and assets under management, respectively, is too small to be meaningful. Yet, both, more so Islamic banks, present a unique situation (of an industry risk) of “too small to fail”.

Read More

By Alon Ben-Meir

Due to a host of common denominators in the Arab world including the lack of traditional liberalism, the tribes’ power, the elites’ control of business, the hold on power by ethnic minorities, the military that cling to power, and the religious divide and Islamic extremism, the Arab Spring could sadly turn into a long and cruel winter. These factors are making the transformation into a more reformist governance, slow, filled with hurdles and punctuated with intense bloodshed. At the same time, each Arab country differs characteristically from one another on other dimensions including: history and culture, demographic composition, the role of the military, resources, and geostrategic situations. This combination of commonality and uniqueness has had, and will continue to have, significant impacts on how the uprising in each Arab country evolves and what kind of political order might eventually emerge.

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By Rushdi Siddiqui, Global Head of Islamic Finance at Thomson Reuters

The time has arrived to take a deeper dive on better understanding of Shariah compliant companies in an Islamic (or Shariah compliant) equity indexes. To many informed and uninformed observers of Islamic equity investing, it seems to imply investing in publicly listed companies in Muslim countries.

The end results contradict the assumptions. This also rebuts the often heard allegations by many from the anti-Shariah movement that Islamic investing is about investing in companies linked to terrorism or financing terrorism. The largest companies in the S&P Global BMI Shariah include ExxonMobil, IBM, Chevron, Nestle, Microsoft, etc.
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Whether western countries and ME liberals like it or not, Islamic parties have emerged victorious in elections in North African states. Before typecasting and dismissing them, Islamic parties deserve to get a fair chance at leading their people.

The Western world and media are terrified of the rise of Islamic parties in Egypt, Tunisia and Morocco. READ MORE HERE

Renato Ganoza /Foter

Goldman Sachs takes stock of its 10-year BRIC investment model, adding new countries such as Egypt and Iran in the mix. But Societe Generale ridicules the BRIC acronym, calling it a Bloody Ridiculous Investment Concept. READ MORE HERE

Egyptians have achieved a major milestone by holding the first leg of their staggered parliamentary elections, and they can take a moment to rejoice. But they know better than anyone else that the road to fulfilling their destiny is strewn with many more hurdles. READ MORE HERE

• 25 Rapid Growth Markets (RGMs) to grow by an average of 6.2% this year and by 5.9% in 2012, compared with 1.6% growth for the Eurozone this year falling to 0.6% next year.

• Qatar had the highest nominal GDP (US$) per capita at PPP in 2010 among the 25 RGMs and has also been the fastest growing economy over the last decade, with an average growth of 13%.

The dynamics of the global economy have changed with a new set of fast-growing markets challenging the position of the established advanced economies. The rapid growth markets (RGMs) are expected to grow collectively by 6.2% this year, almost four times more than the anemic growth expected in the Eurozone according to Ernst & Young’s new quarterly Rapid Growth Markets Forecast (RGMF).
Read More

On the eve of the elections, Egyptians have washed off much of the feel-good afterglow of the first revolution that ousted Hosni Mubarak. Now they are faced with the cold hard light of economic hardship and political uncertainty.

While Egypt’s first revolution earlier this year was full of hope and a spontaneity that surprised even the protestors, the second revolution less than 10 months later has a much sombre undertone. READ MORE HERE

By Alon Ben-Meir

November 8, 2011

The Arab uprising must be seen as an integral part of a world in transformation. The technological and informational revolutions that have spurred (and continue to spur) globalization and interconnectedness between cultures make it impossible for tyrants to rule for the entirety of their lifetimes while mercilessly subjugating their peoples to lives of servitude with no prospect of ever tasting the true meaning of freedom.
Read More

Travel Aficionado /Foter

Moody’s Investors Service has today downgraded the local-currency (LC) deposit ratings of the following five Egyptian banks:
Read More

globetrottingrien /Foter

By Rushdi Siddiqui, Global Head of Islamic Finance, Thomson Reuters

Turkey has been building capital market bridges to GCC and South East Asia, and chairman of the Istanbul Stock Exchange, Hussain Erkan, has been a leading architect in establishing dialogue, hosting events, and facilitating cooperation and coordination with his counterparts for both Islamic and conventional finance. In this interview, Erkan shares his thoughts on the challenges and progress of Islamic finance in Turkey, among various other issues. He is hopeful that the improvements made should be able to attract investors from the GCC.
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Ratings agency Moody says that political instability in Egypt (Ba3 negative), epitomized in the recent, tendered resignation of its interim government on 11 October, is credit negative amid the country”s deteriorating economic conditions, rising pressure on government finances and an increasingly urgent need for the government to shore up external assistance for the balance of payments.
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The Arab Spring not only cost at least three dictators their jobs but also $56-billlion in lost GDP for the worst affected countries, according to a statistical study by a consulting firm. READ MORE HERE

Coptic Christian protesters clashed with pro-government forces Oct. 9, killing at least 23 people and injuring 180. If reports of protesters using firearms and violence against security forces are true, this would mark a distinct change in the tactics of such dissenters, as opposition forces may be turning more violent ahead of scheduled parliamentary elections. However, the violence will likely ultimately help the ruling military council, providing it an excuse to slow its plans to hand over power and possibly rallying support from parts of the Egyptian population.
Read More

Could the Arab Spring have been predicted? More significant, could we have predicted that Saudi Arabia will remain stable throughout the turmoil? Or even where Bin Laden was hiding? New data mining techniques suggest we can. READ MORE HERE

There will be riots in the streets: Mayor Bloomberg warns of anarchy if more jobs aren’t created soon.

‘We have a lot of kids graduating college, can’t find jobs,’ he said on his weekly radio show. ‘That’s what happened in Cairo. That’s what happened in Madrid. You don’t want those kinds of riots here.’ READ MORE HERE

As the global economy lurches from one crisis to the next, we look at the prospects for the regional economies in troubling global conditions which could slash domestic growth.

Another quarter, another headache. Gulf governments have suffered a tumultuous first two quarters of the year and were hoping for some semblance of sanity in the third quarter. At the very least, regional governments were hoping that tragic developments within the Middle East had remained isolated - Syria, Yemen and Libya - leaving other countries in relative safety and peace.
Read More

The Egyptian army has given the public what they wanted: The humiliation of Hosni Mubarak and his regime on live TV. But beyond the court circus, far greater challenges remain.

It was an image that many Egyptians never thought they will live to see. Hosni Mubarak, the Arab strongman and former president of Egypt, in a cage along with his two sons and his closest associates and political allies.

Not satisfied with disposing Mubarak, Egyptians returned time and again to the now-famous Tahrir Square to ensure that Mubarak did not enjoy a luxurious exile ala Zine al-Abidine Ben AliBen Ali of Tunisia, who is now in political asylum in Saudi Arabia despite being found guilty of corrupt property deals by a Tunisian court. READ MORE HERE

The list of the largest financial institutions in MENA based on The Banker data reveal a tough year for regional banks and how they still lag in many areas compared to their global peers.

The number of Middle East banks in the 2011 edition of The Banker Top 1,000 World Banks 2011 slipped to 83 from 90 in the 2010 rankings. READ MORE HERE

Even as the Egyptian Government looks to revive the country’s economy, it has turned down the International Monetary Fund (IMF)’s stand-by agreement. A bold move no doubt, but was it a populist decision or purely a financial one? And if the Egyptian Government’s decision to turn down the IMF a move to spurn Mubarak-praising entities, why is it borrowing from the Gulf?

Egypt’s decision to turn down International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank is a bold move, given that the country’s fiscal situation remains fragile. READ MORE HERE

HSBC’s forecast for the region’s three largest economies reveals its continued concerns for Saudi Arabia and Egypt, while it believes UAE’s status as a safe haven is revived.

HSBC expects Egypt’s GDP to rise a mere 0.2% in 2011, a far cry from the robust 5.1% growth in 2010. To be fair, a lot has changed in the country since the end of 2010. READ MORE HERE

As investors say goodbye to the first half of the year and brace themselves for a strange and uncertain world in the second half, the worry beads are already out.Global economies have stuttered, faced natural disaster of epic proportions, seen political upheavals that nobody could have forecasted and have seen new and old worries surface and resurface.Yet markets have remained resilient for the most part, commodity-driven economies have prospered and emerging economies are still managing to expand and grow.Here is a look at what is keeping investors awake at night and some bright spots in an increasingly uncertain world. READ MORE HERE

There hasn’t been much good news coming out of Egyptian economy since the revolution. But ten pieces of good news in the past two weeks suggest that the economy may be turning a corner.

While nobody is suggesting that the economy is over all its problems - indeed, frustratingly, many Egyptians may not feel the benefits any time soon, there are signs that the economy is working its way through its myriad problems. Read More Here

Egypt’s economy has received a much-needed boost with the promise of aid and loans from the international community. Still the onus of recovery rests with the Egyptian authorities to ensure that the economy goes through this transitional period, without too much damage.

More importantly, the aid gives the authorities the room to build the foundation of a robust economy ready to take its rightful place as a robust emerging market. Read More Here

Middle East’s oil-importing countries such as Egypt, Yemen, Tunisia and Syria could fall into recession this year, according to the International Institute of Finance (IIF), a group of 430 major international banks and financial institutions. Read More Here

Egypt will surpass Saudi Arabia as the region’s largest economy by 2050 and emerge as the 19th largest economy in the world, according to an HSBC report. Read More Here

Reading McKinsey’s Urban World: Mapping The Power Of Cities convinces us that the world will belong to China by 2025 - we will just be living in it. Forget the Middle East and its oil wealth, or Latin America with its flair, charm and commodity-fuelled brilliance, or even India with its bursting economic ingenuity and labour power - China will dominate the proceedings. Read More Here

The emirate’s economy may benefit as international visitors choose hotels in Dubai over other troubled regional tourist destinations, notes Citibank. But Egypt and Bahrain will suffer from poor growth.

The UAE may benefit from the unrest in other parts of the Middle East, according to Citibank, with Dubai set to grow 5% this year and at an even faster clip at 6% in 2012.

“Due to its relative political stability, we believe there is a possibility of a diversion of commercial, investor and tourist activity from less stable parts of the region. The external sector thus is the main driver of the recovery, with gains being posted both in export growth, and a reduction in imports,” notes Citibank. READ MORE

Citibank expects Egypt to emerge as its third best economy in terms of economic growth. It’s obviously taken the long-view on the country, ignoring the political upheaval it has gone through in the past month. Read More

Read More

Find out which Middle East countries make it to Citibank’s list of the fastest growing economies in the world. Hint: it’s not Qatar. Read More

As events in Egypt change faster than you can update them on Twitter or Facebook, regional authorities are looking at the short-term and long-term impact of the crisis on their own economies. Read More

Egypt’s economic growth set to resume again, but a few dark clouds hover over the horizon. Read More