By George Friedman

In a week when the European crisis continued building, the White House chose publicly to focus on announcements about the end of wars. The death of Moammar Gadhafi was said to mark the end of the war in Libya, and excitement about a new democratic Libya abounded. Regarding Iraq, the White House transformed the refusal of the Iraqi government to permit U.S. troops to remain into a decision by Washington instead of an Iraqi rebuff.
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Years after the removal of strongman Saddam Hussein, Iraq continues to struggle and show patchy progress. And while economic and political progress is wildly uneven, the cancer of corruption appears to be ever-present and is entrenching itself firmly in the political machinery of the country, undoing much of the painfully slow progress of the past few years. READ MORE HERE

Oil services and drilling in Iraq may only be currently a $600 million to $800 million market but there is a good likelihood that it could develop into a $6 to $8 billion market, according to Barclays Capital.

“We believe the run rate by year-end will be close to $1.5 billion. There are about 30 rigs drilling currently and NGP believes the rig count could ultimately surpass 300 rigs,” noted BarCap. “The scope of work being performed today is largely limited to workovers, with most drilling campaigns yet to commence. The future of the market lies in the integrated services model, in NGP’s opinion and ours. Service companies are not looked at with the same disdain as oil companies; however, there is an intense focus on cost controls due to cultural mindset.”

BarCap believes Iraq represents one of the largest multi-year growth stories for the oil services industry this decade. Companies that are able to execute and mitigate the political and security pitfalls in Iraq will be rewarded in our opinion.

(c) alifarabia.com

The MENA region has a shortage of 3.5 million affordable dwellings, with Egypt, Iraq, Morocco and Saudi Arabia suffering from the biggest shortfalls.

For all the boom (and subsequent busts) in the regional real estate markets, there remains a shortage of a little more than 3.5 million units of affordable housing in the MENA region, according to Jones Lang LaSalle, the real estate consultants.

The largest shortfalls are in the markets of Egypt (1,500,000), Iraq (1,000,000), Morocco (600,000) and Saudi Arabia (400,000), but other Gulf markets also face shortages, brought upon by a host of factors. READ MORE HERE

The Fraser Institute’s Global Petroleum Survey is the latest where super-rich Qatar beats its regional competitors’ as it pips them to the post as the Middle East’s most investment-friendly destination for petroleum exploration and development. READ MORE HERE

Opec’s annual bulletin reveals the changing dynamics of the energy industry and the key challenges facing both the producers and the consumers.

Click through the charts to find out more:

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Gulf states saw their default risks subside considerably during the second quarter as investors shrugged off the Arab Spring and focused on the troubled EU states. Still, Dubai remained among the list of sovereigns most likely to default.

Dubai, which was ranked as the 7th most risky sovereign in the first quarter, is now at the edge of the list of 10 countries most likely to default, according to data from the second quarter of 2011. READ MORE HERE

The Arab World’s tryst with democracy and freedom is unlikely to bear economic fruits, according to a study. Instead, we could well see a gridlock political environment and economic growth that continues to lag global averages.

The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) insightful study on how the Arab Spring initiative is likely to play out, suggests a 60% probability of a gridlocked political environment that is unlikely to result in realizing the aspirations of the region’s citizens. READ MORE HERE

Spring is nearly six months old. It is time to take stock, remember those who lost their lives and continue to fight, and hand out some well-deserved awards to the key players.

The New York Times columnist Nicholas Kristof, asked the rhetorical question ‘What Country Handled Arab Spring The Best? His own answer: Morocco.

But he left the discussion at that. Given that the Arab Spring is just about six months old, alifarabia.com was inspired to take stock of how the various countries have handled a revolution that has smashed Middle East dogmas, broken the will of Arab strongmen and given hopes to millions not just in the Arab World but also around the world.

The Middle East has seen more public participation in politics in the past six months than it has done over the past 50 years. Much to the shock of Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, Hosni Mubarak and Moamer Qaddhafi, the people of the Arab World launched a unique coup that they could not have fathom and never saw coming. These strongmen were looking to suppress indigenous Islamic movements, the radicals, Al-Qaeda sympathisers, the socialists, the Shiaas and the sufis. They were looking for tangible forces they could fight, and suppress and imprison and maim - as they had done in the past.

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Iraq’s energy sector is its economy’s lifeblood. But while Noor Al Maliki’s government has laid out an ambitious energy development programme, almost no one expect any of those production targets will be met. Can Iraq fulfill its potential and create jobs, ensure security and become one of the most important oil suppliers of the future? READ MORE HERE